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0 pointsirq115y ago0 comments

It’s not remotely clear that this strain is easier to transmit. It’s entirely hypothesis and speculation.

We have seen strains quickly accelerate because of founder effect several times in 2020, and particular strains dominate in particular regions. The experimental studies that are needed to confirm a claim of evolutionary advantage have not been done, and the observational evidence is weak.

Those who would panic about this should be just as circumspect in their their claims as those who would dismiss it.

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Jabbles5y ago

It is a hypothesis with a small prior, yes.

But when considering the data - that the strain has grown faster than all others in the UK at the time - the likelihood becomes significant. Not certain, but not worthy of your casual dismissal.

You dismiss their observational evidence as weak, but offer no further analysis. Please do so.

irq11OP5y ago

“Hypothesis with a small prior” is a fancy way of saying “speculation”.

There are literally dozens of strains on nextstrain that have rapidly grown to be the predominant strain in a region. That alone is not a strong indication of anything other than founder effect.

jibbit5y ago

I'm guessing you're not living in Kent right now?

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