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0 pointsJabbles5y ago0 comments

It is a hypothesis with a small prior, yes.

But when considering the data - that the strain has grown faster than all others in the UK at the time - the likelihood becomes significant. Not certain, but not worthy of your casual dismissal.

You dismiss their observational evidence as weak, but offer no further analysis. Please do so.

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irq115y ago

“Hypothesis with a small prior” is a fancy way of saying “speculation”.

There are literally dozens of strains on nextstrain that have rapidly grown to be the predominant strain in a region. That alone is not a strong indication of anything other than founder effect.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 comments

irq115y ago

“Hypothesis with a small prior” is a fancy way of saying “speculation”.

There are literally dozens of strains on nextstrain that have rapidly grown to be the predominant strain in a region. That alone is not a strong indication of anything other than founder effect.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse