No country has been dealing better with Covid than Taiwan. No lockdown, and > 200 days without new Covid case [1]. Taipei had daily direct flights from Wuhan, and the Diamond Princess mooring near Taipei. They told the world early on [2] how they did it. Summary: Border closure, contract tracing, testing and controlled quarantine for those testing positive. It's worth reading [2] to realise how swiftly, decisively and rationally Taiwan reacted, and compare it with other countries. It probably helped having had an epidemiologist as vice-president [3].
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/29/taiwan-domesti...
[2] C. Y. Wang, C. Y. Ng, R. H. Brook, Response to COVID-19 in Taiwan: Big Data Analytics, New Technology, and Proactive Testing, https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689
- It is an island
- It has an effective, well centralized surveillance network
- It has (presumably) an obedient population, or at least, one that don't think personal freedom includes the right to spread the disease
- They were well prepared thanks to the their experience with SARS
- A good enough welfare system to allow people to quarantine without starving or getting ruined
- A good enough police force to make sure they stay quarantined
- Enough masks and hand sanitizer, with domestic production
This is pretty much the opposite of the US. Which is highly connected, with a loosely connected government that has little control over the private sector that runs the country and a highly individualistic population.
Also, maybe there are some populations that just do better for a mix of reasons: climate, race (genetics), culture, average age, health and population density,...
Final note: closing borders is only effective if you contained the epidemic and others didn't.
Taiwanese people aren’t obedient. You should see how they drive.
They wear masks without flaking out about it as slavery or being against their will or whatever nonsense you guys are on about back home in the west.
Taiwanese people are couch potatoes and extremely reserved. They don’t really want to meet new people or hang out with strangers.
Also the government here didn’t play games in the early weeks. No wait and see business as usual lazy bullshit like in the US. They check tour temperature everywhere, mall entrances, restaurants, government buildings.
The us most certainly should copy Taiwan.
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> They wear masks without flaking out about it as slavery or being against their will or whatever nonsense you guys are on about back home in the west.
The 2nd part is what the GP was talking about with regards to 'obedience'. In some western countries like the US and UK, even the simple request for individuals to wear a mask is seen by some as an infringement on their human rights. There are literally documents floating around social media in the UK citing the Magna Carta[1] as a legal document for why they are entitled not to have their temperature checked!
Granted these people are idiots. But unfortunately the UK and US has also fostered a culture where everyone's voice is deemed equal, even the idiots. A classic example of this was during the EU referendum with the oft quoted phrase "why should we trust those so call experts?" as a retort against financial analysts voicing their concerns.
The problem is when you have research demoted to the same level as hearsay, a general distrust of the government and mix in a large does of fear due to economical, political and/or social unrest, you end up in an environment where those aforementioned idiots end up recruiting more idiots into their cause.
I've thought about this a lot as the pandemic and reaction unfolded. My feeling is that it's a little more nuanced.
From my perspective, it goes like this: (a) politics co-opts science, and (some) scientists become political (for career reasons), (b) political news media puts narrative-supporting "experts" on a pedestal (to reinforce their credibility), (c) people are told they lack the intelligence / knowledge / ability to ever be an expert, (d) people feel internal, unrealized shame at their ignorance, (e) people attempt to cover that shame by posing as experts for their peers, in fact just parroting whatever sound-bites they heard without critical thought, (f) rational debate drastically decreases, as critical thinking skills and underlying understanding have atrophied.
The net result: removal of critical thinking in the public, increased partisanship and anger, and a decreased ability of the public to dismiss crackpots posing as experts.
Recommended response: learn about the actual underlying issues, then (gently, remember (d)!) turn conversations to apolitical explorations of the underlying issues and truths.
Also, most countries still seem to be ignoring the best/cheapest way to control spread via rapid testing and isolation. This has been not only modeled extensively at this point [1][2], but also proven to be effective by sports leagues (NBA, MLB) and Universities (look at where UIUC has kept their numbers vs the state: https://go.illinois.edu/COVIDTestingData )
[1] Larremore, Daniel B, Bryan Wilder, Evan Lester, Soraya Shehata, James M Burke, James A Hay, Milind Tambe, Michael J Mina, and Roy Parker. “Test Sensitivity Is Secondary to Frequency and Turnaround Time for COVID-19 Surveillance.” Preprint. Infectious Diseases (except HIV/AIDS), June 25, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.22.20136309.
[2] Atkeson, Andrew, Michael C. Droste, Michael Mina, and James H. Stock. “Economic Benefits of COVID-19 Screening Tests.” National Bureau of Economic Research, November 2, 2020. https://doi.org/10.3386/w28031.
That assumes that testing-dependent interventions (whether contact tracing and quarantines of the exposed, appropriate treatment of systematic infections, etc.) have nothing to do with the absence of excess deaths.
Which seems improbable.
At the same time, there are a lot of factors that are purely circumstantial, such as weather/climate, age/health of the population, elderly care system. These may have a lot of influence at the tail ends (deaths).
We must not fall into the trap of making post-hoc rationalizations that confirm what we want to believe. We're paying a heavy price with severe measures, if some data turned up that showed that it didn't make much of a difference, that would be a tough pill to swallow.
How do you go back in time and get your population used to wearing masks (and having supply) at the beginning of the pandemic when it really matters?
However now there seem to be so many diffuse infection events and undetected chains that the question is more about how to regain control. I'm not sure how this is achievable without contact restrictions.
And, of course, China has more land borders than any other country in the world, and it's managed to engineer the most drastic turnaround of any country in the world.
Having a small number of entry points is useful to limit initial inoculations, but internal policy and cultural cohesion are key for preventing the explosion of any successful inoculation into national disaster, regardless of a polity's geography.
Cases are at all-time highs, and have pretty much escalated out of control:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2020...
(Ok, Singapore technically is an island but it's connected to Malaysia by the world's busiest border crossing; and Thailand's grappling with a new outbreak now but it seems to be improving.)
I would take the stories of Viet Nam’s “success” with a very large grain of salt. It should be impossible for me to know so many people with odd “severe pneumonia” there given that the entire country has nominally only had a thousand cases or so.
And they are controlling it now by effectively locking down the country to the rest of the world. Even if you're a Vietnamese citizen you can't get back into the country without permission. And the gov't is denying permission in all but the most extreme circumstances.
Malaysia shut its border with Singapore in mid-March [1], and Singapore had what I'd consider a lockdown (most businesses closed, no social gatherings allowed) between 7 April to 19 June [2].
[1] https://www.todayonline.com/8days/eatanddrink/newsandopening...
[2] https://www.gov.sg/article/ending-circuit-breaker-phased-app...
For example the vaccine against Japanese Encephalitis is under investigation for a possible cross-effect on covid immunity.
It's been experimentally verified that various pre-pandemic coronavirus antibodies are reactive against SARS-CoV-2.
It's a fact that different world populations have to deal with different endemic disease profiles.
Consequently, different populations have different pre-infection susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2. [0]
[0] https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)32310-9/ful...
And of course, the same can be said for Mexico (because the main driver of the spread in the US is people not taking simple steps to prevent it).
Travel to Canada has been restricted for much of the year (I live in Michigan; there's a warning 4 hours from the border that travel is restricted). But that's because Canada isn't letting their fool neighbors in.
Not to mention that after the first couple of months, Covid cases are now nicely distributed amongst younger populations as well. Fatalities are still concentrated in older people, but cases are still widespread across demographics.
The facts are staring everyone in the face: when countries started weakening their lockdown procedures, cases started going back up. And nobody's been willing to go back in full lockdown, for various reasons. And so cases are going up a bunch.
Meanwhile Vietnam had some cases in fall/winter, and _immediately_ locked stuff down, shut down universities, and quarantined people who had even a bit of contact with people in positive cases. The stuff was taken seriously, and numbers stayed low because of it.
Maybe the US and Europe "can't do it" because of a lack of political will etc. But it's not physically impossible.
I guess perfect covid policy is contagious!
An island that has high-speed railway connections to Europe is not exactly isolated from the world, not to mention it's ferry connections with multiple neighboring countries in mainland Europe.
Additionally, Great Britain has about 3 times the population of Taiwan, and it's urban centers have between 5 and 7x the population of Taiwan's largest urban centers.
Of course a total closure would be a last resort, because that would cut off imports of things like fresh fruit, but it's been possible to get 20-minute pinprick blood tests since April (admittedly with lower accuracy than PCR tests) - the government simply decided measures like testing everyone at the border and enforcing mandatory self-isolation were not priorities.