The one child policy makes China’s aging problem particularly rapid, at a time when they are not wealthy enough per capita to make the transition. One child supports two parents and four grandparents. Plus a low retirement age that is only now getting extended. (60 for men, 55 for women previously). Over a third of Shanghai is over 60, as is a quarter in Beijing, Tianjin, etc.

Now the one child policy has been relaxed, but it will take a while before extra kids are available to work, and at this point it’s sort of a cultural norm to have one kid (plus prohibitively expensive to raise two kids and provide them decent resources).

China's 1.3B population is not equal. around 700M still lives on $140/month income, with no education to "accomplish anything they want". It will have 500M 65 year olds by 2050, too old to "accomplish anything they want".

China suffers brain drain to the West. Many of Chinese Ph.D students and scientists I know curse the day Xi Jing Ping declared himself to be the emperor, and is actively moving their families out of China as quickly as possible after 2018.

China has had very little luck in advanced semiconductor or airplane engine productions

The incentives are pretty bad for researchers in China. Cheating and corruption is the best way to progress rather than innovation. I find it waste of time reading a Chinese scientific article, yet Chinese scientist in the US or Canada are brilliant.

> China does have one compelling advantage: its enormous population.

Which so far translates into ability to outcompete robots on cost and not much else.

China between 1919-1949 China was ruled by "Warlordism" a weak central government and local strongmen controlling 10-100 million people.

Uncle Xi is killing China. After Mao the whole political model was "collective" so no one could become so strong he would become an Emperor, Xi changes that by removing the two term (10 Yrs) rule of leadership. The CCP had one thing for legitimacy, economic growth. For 30 years China become richer and freer. In 2007 even people in HK were proud to be Chinese. That is not the case anymore. China peaked internationally in 2017.

Post-Xi China whenever that occurs will be a large poor country surrounded by enemies without easy access to global markets. It is impossible to use any Chinese product without the possibility of the use of slave or child labour within the supply chain.

China is more likely to return to Warlordism than become rich.

TL:DR - China became richer and freer post-Mao and now that process has reversed and China is becoming less free and poorer.