> But to address your point, you're locked into JSX a lot more than someone writing in native browser code that doesn't need transpilation and can be ported between other frameworks at the end of the day

Not really, because at the end of the day you still have to write the HTML and CSS and everything to render anything in a browser, the JSX really just gives you a new way to compose it. Now if you're using other styling frameworks that provide their own components, you might not have access to that HTML but that's not a JSX problem that's a "you are too reliant on outside dependency" problem.

Also, transforming code into a runnable form has been a part of programming since we first invented compiled languages. Your comments about transpilation seem really bizarre with that in mind.

I think in 10 years we are going to see a lot of stuff built into the web platform. Typescript definitely now that MS is using Chromium. Then we have Deno for the backend.

One day in the future a kid will be learning programming, and not realize the billions of lines of tooling, or the hundreds of thousands of hours of thought that was put into working around an inadequate platform. However, a lot of this will have been necessary to get to the end result. But also a lot will not have.