What would be more useful if they listed the expected number of loot boxes you need to buy to get an item. "2% chance" reads differently than "you'll need to buy about 50 loot boxes, on average, to get that item".
Yes, they would. The lottery is about giving up something of little value ($1 or $2) for some entertainment and the chance at a truly life-changing situation. I doubt anyone is unaware there's almost no chance they win, and that they're losing on every dollar they spend. Interestingly, the lottery is occasionally +EV to play.
I otherwise agree, people are bad at gambling, probabilities, and understanding the long term. I play poker, and poker players are constantly furious that their 80% favorite hand doesn't win 100% of the time. 80% feels like a lock.
Some people don't care. They want to gamble, and they have no regard for what they lose in the process. I think many humans are just wired this way, or perhaps it's cultural.
I always liked an interview by one of the designers of the game XCOM which relies heavily on showing players probabilities. Apparently behind the scenes on lower difficulties, even though they might show you 85% chance of success, they tweak it under the hood to be closer to 95% because that is where the player's emotional weighting is. They want the players to have fun and that is certainly one way to go about it.
https://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/266891/Jake_Solomon_expl...
Ten thousand years ago doing something risky might result in you going from being a male with no prospects to having a harem with 50 wives. It makes sense that when your ancestors could have made a risky gambled (say raiding the village next door), they’d go for it, much like someone will put everything on 21 Black because the payoff could be so big.
I think people at least initially have better grasps on things like 50-50 chances or 10% chances, even if other gambling fallacies kick in the more you play them.
Wish that were true. Organizers usually take 90% of the money. Just a tiny percentage is paid out.
Like Voltaire said: "Lotteries are a tax on stupidity"
It is expected that that one or two dollars is more likely to result in a life changing situation if saved and properly invested - this is difficult in the modern world since a lot of large institutions are out to short-change the little guys but it still remains true.
I can easily see the value proposition of regular casino gambling - you're slowly losing money for the experience - but for the lottery your money is being transformed into a ticket that is, essentially, worthless.
I am strongly morally opposed to the lottery as a form of government income supplement since spending on lotteries tends to be weighted toward lower income and is extracting revenue from those less able to bear it. Lotteries are an extremely regressive tax.
That all said I think the EV of a lottery ticket is probably quite a bit higher than Starbucks and those sell gangbusters. A lot of our society is oriented toward exploiting addiction.
You could probably get virtually everyone by simply defining it as a game with in app purchases that provide probabilistic or in game performance improvements.
If they can sell levels but not swords nothing of value will be lost.
