I'm good friends with a whole bunch of small-time GOP operatives. No one serious, but people employed full-time in the broader GOP world. Think stuff like "staff for state senator" or "event organizer at regional chamber of commerce type orgs".
I asked all of them in December if they were worried about violence given all the stolen election claims. I had TDS, etc. etc.
I asked after Jan 6 for a post-mortem on their dismissals and every single one said they thought all of the people online were just trolling. Half of them work for employers who ended up sort of half-severing historically very deep ties with state GOP parties.
So, I think there's probably a lot more truth in the GP than you give credit for.