I probably feel differently, because I'm used to using shortcuts and macros on a TKL (or smaller) keyboard. There are many different ways to achieve that, but for instance on my 60% mechanical keyboards I have between 3 and 14 layers (depending on keyboard firmware) which can be accessed with modifiers and trigger macros. There are significantly more combinations available to me on a 60% keyboard or on a laptop keyboard, with appropriate tooling, than is available on a numpad.

I've been doing "serious work" for my entire career, thanks, although these days I do spend more time in Zoom meetings and writing emails/documents.

Do you really feel like you would be constrained by the amount of shortcuts on a keyboard without a numpad? There are so many different combinations you can make once you include control/alt/fn etc. Sure, if you're used to shortcuts on a numpad I can see how it might hinder your productivity for a few weeks. However, working on a smaller keyboard will definitely not constrain the amount of flexibility you have in the long term once you get used to other shortcuts. You might even become more productive on a smaller keyboard, because it takes less effort to stay on the home row and find keys.