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> It should be noted that while markets may be mostly efficient, I do not think anyone is claiming they are completely efficient.

This is false. Grandparent is specifically claiming that markets are completely efficient. Here is a direct quote: "Whether you're an individual trader or a billionaire hedge fund manager, active strategies lose out to passive ones in the long run."

In addition, many academics are also making this same ludicrous claim.

Yes, you can beat the market. But anyone cannot beat the market.

This is a problem for retail investors. Studies such as this one [1] have shown that the past performance of an actively managed fund does not predict its future returns. In other words, while there are certainly actively managed funds that beat the market in some years, a retail investor picking a mutual fund based on past performance is likely to be disappointed.

So how do you pick the fund that will give you high returns? Turns out this is exactly the same problem with individual stock picking, but instead of trying to pick winning stocks on the stock market, you are trying to pick winning managers in the mutual fund business. And your success in doing that ultimately comes down to chance.

[1] https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/does-mutual-fund-s-pa...