Let's look at how the petrodollar came about. The first step with the run on gold in 1971 which broke the Breton Woods system. The value of the dollar went through the floor. Having a big navy didn't make any difference. This hurt oil exporters because now their dollar earning weren't worth as much, but they didn't abandon dollars. There was no credible alternative, and there was no military dimension to that fact.
Then in 1973 US support for Israel lead to the OPEC oil embargo. Oil prices quadrupled. You could say it was American military aid that caused this, well maybe but no actual projection of force by the US was involved. Military aid to Israel was no different in character from Soviet aid to Arab regimes. The reasons the embargo mattered and had an effect were economic reasons, not military ones.
When the United States-Saudi Arabian Joint Commission on Economic Cooperation was established in 1979 the US hadn't invaded any Middle Eastern nation, hadn't blockaded any Middle Eastern ports, hadn't established any bases in the Middle East. The total of their interference was support for Israel, a small state a long way from any of the actual oil.
All three of those milestones were entirely economic in character. Military power projection played no part in them. The US has and uses economic power anyway, regardless of how effective it's navy or army is. It was a military midget, but economic powerhouse in 1941 when Japan attacked Pearl Harbour. It parlayed that economic power into military might, not the other way around. By the end of the war the US was launching 2 aircraft carriers per month due to sheer economic muscle.
US military intervention in the Middle East long post-dates the establishment of the petro-dollar. Those claiming the petro-dollar is a result of military power have it exactly the wrong way around.
That base was exclusively a Saudi air force base until the first Gulf War, which occurred long after the dollar became the standard currency for trading oil.
Armed force superiority is a requisite for maintaining order, which is a valuable good in and of itself, but the country also needs to produce goods themselves (such as research, medicines, technology, media) which is greatly enabled by a large population that has a higher than average level of trust between each other.
I would even assume the latter is far more difficult to create than the armed forces, and only arises from a perfect storm situation. And it feels like it’s in a downward trajectory, but hopefully that is not true or will reverse.
The Eurozone can do so as well. Actually, it must do so to prevent the collapse of the euro. It's the same with the USD, foreign nations keep "stealing" USD and take them out of the US and therefore the US must replace the lost USD just to stay still.
Also, the fact that no money is being printed is one of the biggest problems. Yes, you can increase the money supply without printing. For every USD you create, you also create an obligation to return it which is called debt. When the newly created USD are allocated to otherwise idle resources you may unlock value equivalent or higher than the debt you took on. The excess value you have created in the process is called economic growth. It turns out, fiat creation is highly deflationary and deflationary forces from other sources are extremely high as well. However, debt is inaccessible to the vast majority of the population. I personally still get 4% interest rates on private loans. The borrowed money never ends up in the real economy indicated by low inflation rates.
We are basically experiencing the great depression again but to a milder degree, therefore we should do our best to prevent it from becoming a problem in the first place. The fact that the US hit inflation goals because of a pandemic is pathetic. What if they were not blessed with a natural disaster that spurred politicians to act (it wasn't enough to get trump to act)?
Hitting inflation goals and moderate interest rates quickly is absolutely necessary to keep the economy stable. With every year of low interest and low inflation the imbalance keeps growing but the correction will happen in a flash, therefore we must ensure that any imbalance is as small as possible before we run into the crash.
It's like extinguishing wild fires as soon as they happen while the fire is still under control. At some point you can no longer contain the fire but the consequences have become unbearable.
It's better to crash small today, than crash big tomorrow. Unfortunately, today is many years too late.
Currently, there isn't a country that isn't doing this.
But I agree, when the music is gonna stop globally the US can print the longest.
+50% since 2016, +20% since pandemic started.
In a fashion, the US printing dollars lowers the value of a dollar which effectively taxes the rest of the world by lowering the value of their dollar denominated assets. Particularly oil. Still it’s an odd system as the US is ultimately on the hook for that debt, to US federal debt holders who are still majority Americans.
It’ll be interesting to see how post-oil world economy will handle it. Possibly more serious large scale wars between regional powers.
Those foreign nations take USD out of circulation and buy US treasuries. They are expressing a desire that the US invests the USD they spend on the bonds. When you buy US treasures you do so because you think the US government can spend your money better than you can spend it yourself. If the US decides to not borrow your money it is basically saying you should put your money elsewhere but these foreign nations refuse to do so.
Because the US government doesn't spend the money inside the US the obvious result is unemployment. There is no way to increase the investment rate to account for the increased savings rate. Instead, the domestic savings rate of US citizens must go down to compensate for the increased foreign savings rate. How does it go down? Someone who is unemployed or underemployed must consume more than they earn. Income inequality becomes mandatory to just keep the economy alive. It's increasingly unsustainable for everyone including foreign owners of treasuries.
Of course the US has a nice president right now that wants to let the damn savers save by increasing the investment rate through infrastructure spending. It's a win-win for everyone. The underemployed get jobs, the savers get a nice investment that will not suddenly collapse one day.
1: https://www.thebalance.com/interest-on-the-national-debt-411...
