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0 pointsmssundaram4y ago0 comments

I'm ignorant - why can't solar and wind provide enough power? What about somewhere like Arizona/Nevada/Utah?

0 comments

Because those are intermittent power sources. That is, there are times when the wind isn't blowing, and sun isn't shining, and there is no battery technology (now or coming) that is capable of storing enough energy to bridge this intermittency gap. This is why solar and wind need fossil fuel back-up. Natural gas companies are some of the biggest proponents of solar and wind projects.

gautamcgoel4y ago

Can you elaborate on the "or coming" part of your post? What makes you think batteries won't be substantially better 20 years from now?

stjohnswarts4y ago

Because we've been working pretty hard on batteries pretty hard for over 200 years, it will take a 10-20X improvement over current technology and we're not really seeing anything that is exponential like that anytime soon. I mean obviously it could happen, it's just unlikely given the past 200 years of steady improvement and not step function improvements.

nytgop774y ago

My heuristic for pessimism:

We use enourmous amounts of energy and we invest enourmous amounts of money in energy production. At the same time we have neglible storage and and neglible investment in storage.

some numbers:

194MWh - capacity of Hornsdale Power Reserve in Australia

161 million A$ - it's cost (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornsdale_Power_Reserve)

4 700 000 MWh - Australia's daily total consumption of energy of all fuel types (https://www.energy.gov.au/data/energy-consumption)

4700000 / 194 = 24226 - number of same power reserves to store australias power for one day.

24226 * 161 millions = 3.9 trillions of A$ - money needed to build a days capacity in Australia at current price.

(for comparison, Australia GDP is near 2 trillion A$, US GDP is 27 trilion A$)

ctdonath4y ago

Short answer: solar produces ~10 watts per square meter, all factors considered. Wind, even less. USA consumes 3.8T kWh/yr electricity, needing 44,000 square kilometers (20% of Utah) of solar panels & buffer batteries to supply.

Conceivable, but a massive undertaking at a scale having inevitable significant problems ($66T price tag for starters).

ctdonath4y ago

($66T = 1m^2 panel + 1kWh battery from https://www.goalzero.com/shop/kits/goal-zero-yeti-1000x-powe... times 44,000km^2. That’s 3 years of the USA‘s entire GDP.)

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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macspoofing4y ago

gautamcgoel4y ago

Can you elaborate on the "or coming" part of your post? What makes you think batteries won't be substantially better 20 years from now?

stjohnswarts4y ago

nytgop774y ago

My heuristic for pessimism:

We use enourmous amounts of energy and we invest enourmous amounts of money in energy production. At the same time we have neglible storage and and neglible investment in storage.

some numbers:

194MWh - capacity of Hornsdale Power Reserve in Australia

161 million A$ - it's cost (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornsdale_Power_Reserve)

4 700 000 MWh - Australia's daily total consumption of energy of all fuel types (https://www.energy.gov.au/data/energy-consumption)

4700000 / 194 = 24226 - number of same power reserves to store australias power for one day.

24226 * 161 millions = 3.9 trillions of A$ - money needed to build a days capacity in Australia at current price.

(for comparison, Australia GDP is near 2 trillion A$, US GDP is 27 trilion A$)

ctdonath4y ago

Conceivable, but a massive undertaking at a scale having inevitable significant problems ($66T price tag for starters).

ctdonath4y ago

($66T = 1m^2 panel + 1kWh battery from https://www.goalzero.com/shop/kits/goal-zero-yeti-1000x-powe... times 44,000km^2. That’s 3 years of the USA‘s entire GDP.)

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse