That's exactly my point–code written under pressure during an hour-long code challenge will never be representative of code written during normal day-to-day coding. Even if the problem domain is similar to a real-world problem.
> I disagree that "real production code" is not throwaway. In situations of high requirements volatility, a great deal of production code ends up getting thrown away
But it's not written to be thrown away an hour later. That's not really the kind of 'production code' that any reasonable person would be talking about in this thread. If you're talking about exploratory data analysis, data science or whatever, sure, you can consider it 'production code', but it's not the product of the craft of software engineering, it's more about running quick experiments.
> I'm not sold that the more elaborate approach of being thoughtfully and explicitly untyped for a project's early stages for the sake of prototyping in a statically typed language would yield much practical gain.
There are many different kinds of projects. And people who work with good statically typed languages can prototype quite well using types to drive their domain modelling. It's a different way of working. You should read some of what Scott Wlaschin has written to get an idea.