Absolutely, it’s all about cost/benefit and incentives. If you look at the share of over-70s that are vaccinated, it’s basically the same extremely high rate regardless of party affiliation. They have skin in the game and so they can’t afford to posture as it very well might cost them their lives to do so.

For 20 year-olds, kind of the opposite currently. Costs very little to use this choice as a political signaling gesture. But if the cost increases, as you say, behaviors will change and people will change their position. Talk is cheap, it’s easy to say “never” when it costs you ~nothing to do so.

But in short, I do strongly agree that mandates will be more persuasive than just approval alone. But I think full approval will still be beneficial in places that won’t make mandates.