1) Risk of potential negative long-term health outcomes from COVID-19 vaccine.
2) Risk of potential negative health outcomes (long and short term) from COVID-19 infection.
As well as
3) Risk of potential negative non-health outcomes from COVID-19 infection (social and economic, risk of infecting others, risk of overrunning ICUs)
With a proper risk analysis vaccine 100% wins for the vast majority of people and it's not even close.