I think their numbers are completely irrelevant, now that we know the visual hash can be gamed. Since it can be, it will be.
Basically, that 1 in a trillion number has an implicit "assuming people aren't cheating", as most mathematical models do. But it's already evident people can cheat this system.
I don't know what the odds will end up being, 1 in a trillion or 1 in 100, but they will not be based on statistical analysis. The odds will be based on cultural and social factors... how quickly do Apple reviewers get overwhelmed? How easily can script kiddies use the tools to fake hashes? Are there consequences for false reports?
How many people want to get you in trouble?