It will be interesting to see the geographic distribution when the site gets this part done:
> I’m working on mapping all retail pharmacy locations to waste over time
That caveat doesn't seem particularly important. The worst case is that 97% of all vaccination sites are perfectly efficient and 3% of them just dump all their allocated vaccines into the trash. Being within 3% of the lower bound doesn't leave much wiggle room.
Disclaimer: comment in personal capacity.
They have some of the most horrible bureaucracy when it came to vaccine administration. Appointment times meant nothing and it took close to 10min/patient to progress in the line.
For my 2nd dose, their system broke down entirely and rather than inform everyone in the line, they decided to run around like chickens with their heads cut off and then take a lunch break, keeping everyone wondering what's going on.
11M wasted doses is frightening. That would vaccinate the entire population of New Zealand.
Making things convenient often requires using resources less efficiently, and we can’t get everyone vaccinated unless getting vaccinated is convenient.
I remember in the beginning of the vaccination campaign that the vials themselves were in short order. It is probably all sorted out but making 10 times more will create additional logistics and production challenges. Is it worth it in order to save less than 3% of the substance?
And there are solutions to the wasted doses. Basically, plan the vaccinations ahead to have the required number of people and setup a waiting list so that if someone doesn't show up, call someone else. Where I got vaccinated, I asked them the question about the potentially wasted extra doses, and they proudly told me that using that method they didn't waste a single dose out of the 10000+ they administered.
EDIT: As for the New-Zealand reference, we can also say that we could have vaccinated 0.5% if India with all these doses, which sounds much less impressive. It is all a matter of proportion. I also think that in the case of New-Zealand, right now, being a remote island is more of a problem than the availability of doses, thankfully, it is also helps them keeping covid at bay.