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0 pointsdevnulll4y ago0 comments

Tesla owns the near term EV space simply due to battery output. Nobody else has, or is making, those investments at sufficient scale.

If Tesla realizes it's more profitable to sell skateboards to BMW, then they'll happily do that. They're a basic capitalist company in that regard.

To what degree will existing automakers get national level protections in order to protect global interests? Germany certainly won't sit by while BMW & MB go under; they'll take some action even if it's forcing Tesla Germany to sell skateboards to BMW. Japan will do something similar to preserve Toyota & Honda, as will China and South Korea.

Disruption will be very interesting in how it plays out...

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BoorishBears4y ago

Man so now we're thinking that a change in powertrains will be so disruptive governments will force Tesla to sell auto manufacturers cars they can stick their design.

Like Build-A-Bear for the auto industry.

Meanwhile the Taycan is such a smashing successful Porsche pushed back the CT to focus on it, the Mach E is making a per-unit profit day 1, the Ioniq 5 just lead Hyundai to their biggest profit in 7 years before even hitting US shores...

The doom and gloom would be funny if it wasn't so far off-base it went into this uncomfortable place of sounding like paranoid rambling.

If Tesla can't produce an extra bumper for a Model S that's been in production for 7 years what makes you think they can make skateboards for anyone?

devnulllOP4y ago

This isn't speculation. :)

GM and LG are partnering to make a battery plant for GM's cars: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1126298_gm-lg-chem-anno...

Porsche is piggybacking on VW's battery ventures: "For high-volume models, Porsche will source batteries from its Volkswagen Group parent, which is building an extensive network of battery plants."

Like Tesla, VW is holding "Battery Day" events: https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/15/22325813/vw-volkswagen-po...

"One way Volkswagen plans to boost production of battery-powered vehicles is through a massive expansion of its manufacturing footprint. The automaker plans to have six battery cell production plants operating in Europe by 2030, which it will build alone or with partners.

The first two plants will be in Salzgitter, Germany, and Skelleftea, Sweden; a third plant will be established either in Spain, Portugal, or France; and the fourth factory will be based in Eastern Europe. The plants will have a production capacity of 240 gigawatt-hours a year, Schmall said."

The groups missing from this discussion: Ford BMW Toyota Mercedes Honda

Some of them will be able to piggyback LG and Panasonic, but realistically there will be a huge battery shortage for the next decade. The only ones with investments that look ready "soon" are Tesla, LG and Panasonic. Of those 3, LG and Panasonic seem far too small. Only Tesla seems poised to have supply in the near term.

That means companies w/o batteries are going to be shipping ICE cars, or forced to pay a premium in some way to those with battery supplies.

The Mach E, Taycan, and F150 Lighting are all amazing. They will not be able to make many simply due to battery constraints.

BoorishBears4y ago

Lol what is this non-sequitur?

> Porsche is piggybacking on VW's battery...

You realize Porsche is part of VW right? It's like saying VW is "piggybacking" on VW... wait until you find out the E-Tron GT is literally a VW Taycan!

> The groups missing from this discussion: Ford BMW Toyota Mercedes Honda

... missing because you didn't mention them. Like, did you just use your omission as proof of a point? What?

BMW has 3 main battery suppliers including Samsung.

Ford has SKI and their USITC problem is cleared.

CATL is supplying everyone from BMW to Mercedes to Toyota to Honda... and even Tesla gasp

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chines...

Honda even bought a small stake in them to bless their partnership. Even Team "wait-for-hydrogen" (Toyota) is working on solid-state batteries with the backing of the Japanese government

Edit: I just realized based on your comment you'll have no idea what half those acronyms are because you think Tesla LG and Panasonic are the only players in the space, which is hilarious given the topic of conversation.

They're also battery manufacturers. SK Innovation had a spat with LG over stolen IP that almost had them banned from importing materials from batteries, but they settled.

The fact you didn't bring up CATL... well kind of says it all. CATL delivered more capacity in cars on the road than LG and Panasonic this year. Model 3s made in China carry their batteries amongst at least a half-dozen other manufacturers.)

Seriously what is this navel-gazing from people who have no clue about the auto industry or cars in general besides rantings of their pet billionaire? If this was a JS framework people without half a clue wouldn't be comfortable hollering about the end of days, but because of the general arrogance tech seems to carry itself with, every person off the street suddenly thinks they know some secret that big automaker is wayyy too dumb to see and their death is just over the hill.

Puhlease.

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BoorishBears4y ago

Man so now we're thinking that a change in powertrains will be so disruptive governments will force Tesla to sell auto manufacturers cars they can stick their design.

Like Build-A-Bear for the auto industry.

The doom and gloom would be funny if it wasn't so far off-base it went into this uncomfortable place of sounding like paranoid rambling.

If Tesla can't produce an extra bumper for a Model S that's been in production for 7 years what makes you think they can make skateboards for anyone?

devnulllOP4y ago

This isn't speculation. :)

GM and LG are partnering to make a battery plant for GM's cars: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1126298_gm-lg-chem-anno...

Porsche is piggybacking on VW's battery ventures: "For high-volume models, Porsche will source batteries from its Volkswagen Group parent, which is building an extensive network of battery plants."

Like Tesla, VW is holding "Battery Day" events: https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/15/22325813/vw-volkswagen-po...

The groups missing from this discussion: Ford BMW Toyota Mercedes Honda

That means companies w/o batteries are going to be shipping ICE cars, or forced to pay a premium in some way to those with battery supplies.

The Mach E, Taycan, and F150 Lighting are all amazing. They will not be able to make many simply due to battery constraints.

BoorishBears4y ago

Lol what is this non-sequitur?

> Porsche is piggybacking on VW's battery...

You realize Porsche is part of VW right? It's like saying VW is "piggybacking" on VW... wait until you find out the E-Tron GT is literally a VW Taycan!

> The groups missing from this discussion: Ford BMW Toyota Mercedes Honda

... missing because you didn't mention them. Like, did you just use your omission as proof of a point? What?

BMW has 3 main battery suppliers including Samsung.

Ford has SKI and their USITC problem is cleared.

CATL is supplying everyone from BMW to Mercedes to Toyota to Honda... and even Tesla gasp

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chines...

Honda even bought a small stake in them to bless their partnership. Even Team "wait-for-hydrogen" (Toyota) is working on solid-state batteries with the backing of the Japanese government

They're also battery manufacturers. SK Innovation had a spat with LG over stolen IP that almost had them banned from importing materials from batteries, but they settled.

Puhlease.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse