undefined | Better HN

0 pointssimonh4y ago0 comments

I'm afraid you're probably correct. I fully support vaccination, am vaccinated and support vaccine mandates. Still, the fact is here in Britain high vaccination rates are not stopping the propagation of the virus. Maybe if we also had a full lockdown as well that combined with vaccination might stop it spreading, but that's not a reasonable policy given the low risk of the virus to the vaccinated population and young people.

0 comments

nradov4y ago

A full lockdown is not practical, nor would it be effective. SARS-CoV-2 has multiple animal reservoirs. So even if we could somehow eliminate it from all humans simultaneously (we can't), someone would just catch it from an animal again and the whole pandemic would restart. The bats which presumably transmitted it to humans in 2019 are still out there somewhere.

lamontcg4y ago

You still don't have high enough vaccination rates.

All the kids under 16 have a vaccination rate of 0% and they still count and they commingle and provide a reservoir. The vaccination rate in 16-25 year olds is also probably not high enough to achieve herd immunity with delta. It isn't a particular mystery why its still spreading unless you assume kids don't exist.

A single number for vaccination status and herd immunity would only be meaningful if the population was randomly well-mixed. In reality kids are much more likely to see other kids every day than hang out with the elderly.

simonhOP4y ago

Estimates for case rates among under 16s are up to 50%, half of them may well have had it already. They also fight it off fairly quickly and the vaccine doesn't stop you getting it. Add all that together and there rally doesn't look like a compelling case for vaccing kinds, at least in the UK.

We are rolling it out to 16-17 year olds, which happens to be the ages of my kids and both had their first shots about a week ago. There may be some marginal benefit for youngsters, but those dose are better deployed elsewhere. Over 17s are already well vaccinated here.

I'm not at all anti-vaccine, they've transformed the UK, but there's just no point vaccing under 16s. We're deep into diminishing returns with that, and those doses are sorely needed in many other countries.