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0 pointsawb4y ago0 comments

I don’t think that’s quite right. Otherwise, you could just follow the opposite of your unprofessional trade strategy as a cheap proxy for a professional trading strategy.

I think the market is dominated by front-running trades and randomness.

0 comments

initplus4y ago

This reasoning doesn't work because the market isn't a sequence of discrete binary choices. If the "opposite" of a bad strategy was a good one anyone could have great returns by designing some obviously terrible money losing strategy then doing the "opposite".

hollerith4y ago

Right, and even if the market was a sequence of discrete binary choices, bad traders will make many bad binary choices, but many of their choices will be good ones. (They just won't know which are bad and which are good.)

In other words, reversing every choice in a mediocre sequence of binary choices yields another mediocre sequence of choices.

RhysU4y ago

Taking into account trading costs, a meh strategy and its inverse can both lose money.

civilized4y ago

Front-runners still have to run in front of something, though. And it's probably not going to be the purchases of some little retail investor.

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