It also depends on your target environment, and how much control you can exert over the machine where your software will run.
Sometimes you're creating an app that other users need to run in their own environments - and in that case, targeting "latest LTS" is safer, as they may have requirements on what they can run that you don't.
True, there are, indeed, times when you can't use the current version, but note that Java applications are now encouraged to bundle their own runtime (generated with jlink).
