It’s not that simple because there’s no objective way to get a number for the most important question: how many people would have bought if they couldn’t pirate it? The publishers have quoted estimates which basically assume 100% conversion and I’d be quite surprised if there weren’t senior managers who wholeheartedly believed that because if your job amounts to “sell more” that’s a very tempting way to say that not hitting your targets wasn’t your fault. This is especially what you tell politicians when saying you need police investigations into pirating and various legal protections, too.

These numbers are, of course, wildly optimistic but it’s harder to say exactly how far off they are.