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0 pointsbillylindeman4y ago0 comments

CPI is almost certainly gamed.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

0 comments

Is it? Can’t game it much or for long without being obvious because it’s compounding. Let’s say inflation is understated by 4% absolute per year. Over 40 years, that’s a factor of 4.

https://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-adjusted-prices...

Is the fuel cost per mile traveled 4 times higher than it was in 1981? No. Fuel prices adjusted for CPI are about identical with what they were in 1981 ($3.80/gallon): https://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-adjusted-prices... And fuel efficiency has improved by about 40% in that time: https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends/highlights-automotive-... (Even as vehicle reliability and safety and comfort have also gone up.)

clavicat4y ago

Fuel would be hard to game. It’s just fuel. Other components are trickier to calculate, like aggregate food prices or things involving hedonic regression. If there is gaming, you’d have to look at the tricky parts.

Robotbeat4y ago

Well if you don’t think we’ve gamed fuel but do think we’ve gamed CPI significantly (ie several percentage points per year for decades), then we have made REMARKABLE progress in reducing fuel costs over the last 40 years, with fuel efficiency improvements on top of that.

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midasuni4y ago

Since 2010 the cost of bread and milk has increased below CPI, and in general food at home has been below inflation too

fddhjjj4y ago

Shadows stats has faced some criticism https://econbrowser.com/archives/2008/09/shadowstats_deb

Some wags have pointed out the price has been constant for many years https://web.archive.org/web/20080512223437/http://www.shadow...

The billion prices project independently collects prices and matches CPI well https://www.businessinsider.com/million-prices-project-vs-th...

Note that the inflation stats in Argentina *were* manipulated and official numbers differed from billion prices. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIT_Billion_Prices_project

clavicat4y ago

ShadowStats is a crude derivative of CPI data so it’s gamed squared.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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Robotbeat4y ago

Is it? Can’t game it much or for long without being obvious because it’s compounding. Let’s say inflation is understated by 4% absolute per year. Over 40 years, that’s a factor of 4.

https://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-adjusted-prices...

clavicat4y ago

Robotbeat4y ago

1 more reply

midasuni4y ago

Since 2010 the cost of bread and milk has increased below CPI, and in general food at home has been below inflation too

fddhjjj4y ago

Shadows stats has faced some criticism https://econbrowser.com/archives/2008/09/shadowstats_deb

Some wags have pointed out the price has been constant for many years https://web.archive.org/web/20080512223437/http://www.shadow...

The billion prices project independently collects prices and matches CPI well https://www.businessinsider.com/million-prices-project-vs-th...

Note that the inflation stats in Argentina *were* manipulated and official numbers differed from billion prices. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIT_Billion_Prices_project

clavicat4y ago

ShadowStats is a crude derivative of CPI data so it’s gamed squared.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse