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0 pointsDoingIsLearning4y ago0 comments

> Seriously, can't we just accept reality and get back to normal.

Some countries have, some haven't been able to yet. I'm not going to start ideological arguments just want to bring you a new perspective.

The main criteria is your healthcare capacity.

In the Netherlands facemasks are only mandatory in public transit at this point. But you need a vaccine or test certificate to go to a restaurant/bar. The number of infections went up with everybody going back to the offices, but the hospitalizations and deaths are still on the low numbers.

In Germany you have regions like Saxony with extremely low numbers of vaccinated people, infection numbers also went up, but the hospitalizations are equally high, and the healthcare system is now strained with beds being repurposed for covid wards and surgeries cancelled.

My point is that _if_ we have unlimited healthcare resources and capacity then yes, theoretically, everything could go back to normal. But irrespective of where you sit ideologically our resources are finite, so our decisions have consequences.

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LurkingPenguin4y ago

In the US, even before the pandemic, ICUs were typically run at very close to capacity. From Becker's Hospital Review[1]:

> For most level 1 trauma centers and tertiary care facilities, operating intensive care units at 80 percent to 90 percent capacity is standard — even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

In bad flu years, ERs are commonly overwhelmed[2] even though we obviously have vaccines that provide so-so protection:

https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patie...

I suspect that the situation in Europe is much the same.

Even if the vaccines continue to provide good protection against hospitalization, that doesn't mean that breakthrough infections won't have any impact on the healthcare system. As an anecdote, I just learned that a friend, who is a super fit collegiate athlete, just had a breakthrough infection and almost went to the ER because her symptoms were quite bad. She decided against it and the symptoms subsided within a couple of days, but if you hear about and read enough reports about breakthrough infections, it's pretty clear that it's not rare for "mild" cases to be pretty rough -- rough enough to have some people thinking about a visit to the hospital.

SARS-CoV-2 is well on its way to being endemic (it basically already is) so if we're being honest about getting back to normal, it's time for public health decision makers to be more realistic about the impact the virus will have on the healthcare system. Practically speaking, that means being prepared for high utilization and expanding capacity.

[1] https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-flow/2-healthc...

[2] https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patie...

topspin4y ago

"but if you hear about and read enough reports about breakthrough infections, it's pretty clear that it's not rare for "mild" cases to be pretty rough"

That's me to a tee. Full vax by mid May, the worse fever of my life in Sept. Lasted five days and it felt like my brain was swelled.

The variants are way ahead of the vaccines. Perhaps the vaccines reduce symptoms -- I had no respiratory symptoms, for which I'm very grateful -- but not getting this is pretty much not an option; you are going to get it.

Eliminating or eradicating this is not feasible near term. I'm just astonished the official mainstream narrative is still indulging that concept.

Clampower4y ago

This is partially untrue.

Numbers are back up in the Netherlands, hospitals intensive care units are largely at capacity, and facemasks were reintroduced in public spaces such as all shops, doctors offices, etc last week.

DoingIsLearningOP4y ago

Indeed, fair correction on the masks being brought back.

But the intensive care units in the Netherlands are only at capacity in Brabant.

Everywhere else things are still ok and are likely to receive transfers from Brabant to balance resources.

tromp4y ago

There is a facemask mandate in public spaces, but enforcement is often lacking. I'd say 5-10% of shoppers don't wear masks. And no shop seems to refuse them. In my local mall, I've seen the mall manager walking around unmasked.

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