Maybe western powers are talking big about sanctions & such to make it even cheaper for Moscow to feel big. (Vs. actual military action, which tends to kill a lot of people even when "nothing goes wrong".)
And maybe The Guardian does have a passably sophisticated understanding of the situation. But I don't see much evidence of that.
https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-images-reveal-russ...
https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2021/12/27/satelli...
You can park tanks on your side of the border and talk big without a major logistical build-up. Or "just barely" cross the border in force. Or run a token few units deep into Ukraine (+/- local opposition). But to actually move large, modern military forces deep into Ukraine (the country is over 500,000 sq. km), a huge logistical build-up would be necessary.
Invasion is not a video game, where tanks & troop transports have unlimited fuel, never need spare parts, and there are big piles of ammunition (of the exact right sizes & types for Russian weapons) scattered every few km through the Ukrainian countryside.
