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0 pointsabeppu4y ago0 comments

I think there's a more recent flip side to it.

The two most recent Republican presidents got into office while failing to win the popular vote. Prior to Bush, that hadn't happened since the 19th century. In that context the GOP learned from those experiences that it's more important to have the right rules keep you in power than it is to actually have the support of the governed.

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ByteJockey4y ago

That seems more likely to be because the GOP has rigorously cultivated a base that's advantaged by the electoral college.

It's just weird how much culture warring happens over this when most people are ambivalent at best, and the types of voting restrictions we're talking about don't have much of an impact on turnout.[0] I suppose everyone has to have a hobby, but I guess I kind of expect this stuff to track things that are salient to the populace.

[0] https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/136/4/2615/628...

Convenience link to sci-hub for anyone wanting the full text: https://sci-hub.st/10.1093/qje/qjab019

abeppuOP4y ago

I think it's wrong to generalize from voter id laws to "the types of voting restrictions we're talking about". Other stuff that's being pushed:

- limitations on early voting

- limitations on mail voting windows

- criminalizing helping people return their mail ballots (including disabled people)

- sending mail ballots not specifically requested

- voter roll purges

When these are paired with stuff that isn't statutory (fewer voting machines per capita causing long lines at particular polling places), I don't think it's a stretch to think there would be aggregate impacts that are significant given the narrow margins that we often tend to see.

ByteJockey4y ago

Could be, I suppose. Though for most of those, I'd expect them to have approximately the same impact as voter id laws. The big exception being voter roll purges in states without same day registration, that one seems most likely to have an impact.

> given the narrow margins that we often tend to see.

Most elections really aren't that narrow (hence the high incumbency rate). The few that are just end up dominating the news cycles.

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ByteJockey4y ago

That seems more likely to be because the GOP has rigorously cultivated a base that's advantaged by the electoral college.

[0] https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/136/4/2615/628...

Convenience link to sci-hub for anyone wanting the full text: https://sci-hub.st/10.1093/qje/qjab019

abeppuOP4y ago

I think it's wrong to generalize from voter id laws to "the types of voting restrictions we're talking about". Other stuff that's being pushed:

- limitations on early voting

- limitations on mail voting windows

- criminalizing helping people return their mail ballots (including disabled people)

- sending mail ballots not specifically requested

- voter roll purges

ByteJockey4y ago

> given the narrow margins that we often tend to see.

Most elections really aren't that narrow (hence the high incumbency rate). The few that are just end up dominating the news cycles.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse