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0 pointscj4y ago0 comments

> Either way, sell early and buy the crash.

Trying to time the market is akin to individual stock picking.

When it works, it’s usually just luck.

0 comments

No it can be skill. Was Warren Buffet and Charlie munger just lucky, year after year? Was Michael Burry of the Big Short just lucky to short the mortgage backed securities market, no he also side stepped the dot com crash and bought value stocks, recently he had very nice shorts on Kathy Woods ARKK... clearly he isn't just lucky, he has skill. I used to think I have skill yet my results were random for about a decade, then I grew a lot emotionally and in wisdom/perspective, and now I too beat the market average in both return and risk.

lotsofpulp4y ago

Buffet’s last good move was the deal he got for Goldman Sachs in 2007. Then he said he was not going to invest in tech companies because he did not invest in businesses he did not understand, then he dumped a bunch of money in IBM which obviously did terrible, then he relented and finally bought a ton of Apple in 2014 or 2015, which has single-handedly saved Berkshire and kept it relevant.

I also would like to see objective proof of how well Burry has done since 2008 compared to the basically risk-less and cost-less VOO or VTI.

christophilus4y ago

Apple, in absolute terms, has been his best investment (iirc). But yeah. The law of large numbers has gotten him. When you have to invest hundreds of billions, it’s impossible to keep compounding at high rates. I’d put a lot of money on Buffett beating the market if he was managing $50M.

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HPsquared4y ago

These days Apple is not really a "growth" prospect developing something speculative, it's more of a "cash cow" collecting rents.

The former would be the kind of "tech stock" he would avoid; the Apple of today (the latter) is the kind of predictable business Buffett does invest in.

cjOP4y ago

Quoting the original commenter:

> There are people with more capital, time, and knowledge than you who will consistently beat you.

Maybe you are one of those people, but the point is not everyone is good at it (the majority of people are bad at it)

cudgy4y ago

Buffet and Munger manage the companies they buy. You, 99.99% of stock purchasers, and I are dependent on the existing management with no control over decisions companies make. Big difference.

greedo4y ago

Actually they don't. They put managers in place and are largely hands off on the running of their acquisitions.

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xfitm34y ago

You cite emotional and wisdom/perspective growth, can you opine on that further?

3pt141594y ago

You don't miss all the crashes, but there are some fundamentals that when they get out of whack at best you get a flat market for years and at worse you see a crash. Why buy into an overhyped market?

lottin4y ago

Because you don't know if it's overhyped or not.

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