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0 pointshartator4y ago0 comments

This is still underperforming the sp500 who went up 87% in the same 5 years.

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Investors in Vision Fund likely have the goal of returns for this investment that are not similar to the S&P 500 or other public equity indices. I'd further bet that 15-20% annualized is considered a very good result for this part of those investors' portfolios.

hartatorOP4y ago

sp500 has both better returns and better diversification so less overall risks. And I am sure Vision Fund has higher expenses ratio than most of sp500 indexes. The only ones winning here is the execs of the fund.

FanaHOVA4y ago

You aren't understanding how capital and risk allocation work at a portfolio level. The people putting money in the SoftBank funds ALREADY have hundreds of billions invested in public equities. They are looking to diversify their portfolio across different asset classes. Your comment isn't relevant.

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sytelus4y ago

If you went 5 years back, I don’t think you would have predicted that sp500 will be yielding 87%. At that point in time, SoftBank would have looked pretty reasonable. So there is a survivorship bias when people compare with sp500.

Now, let’s look at next 5 years. Would you be willing to bet that sp500 continues its streak? Would all macro-economic coincidences and government actions continue in same manner for next 5 years?

paxys4y ago

It's not as simple a comparison. We don't know the annual return % since all the money wasn't invested on day 1 but at various different points over 5 years. And the majority of it is still tied up in companies that haven't exited yet, so the value is mostly theoretical.

hartatorOP4y ago

Sp500 is meant to be the benchmark. This is very unfair to present worst numbers than the benchmark and present it as a win even if numbers can be off.

zippy54y ago

I mean, 90% of large cap investors have underperformed the sp500. It's not about optimal returns, it's about diversification and portfolio risk. The Saudi's want some of their money in things that aren't correlated with oil, and pretty much everything in the physical word is. Technology is one of the few things that may even be inversely correlated.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/18/stock-picking-has-a-terrible...

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paxys4y ago

Vision Fund's minimum term is 12 years, and it will likely go on for a lot longer than that. Comparing its very early years to a stock market bull run is pointless. Like 40 out of 400-500 total investments have even seen an exit yet.

Goety4y ago

The pandemic killed a lot of good bets at Soft Bank. The rogue wave was not kind to anyone.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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okhobb4y ago

hartatorOP4y ago

FanaHOVA4y ago

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sytelus4y ago

Now, let’s look at next 5 years. Would you be willing to bet that sp500 continues its streak? Would all macro-economic coincidences and government actions continue in same manner for next 5 years?

paxys4y ago

hartatorOP4y ago

Sp500 is meant to be the benchmark. This is very unfair to present worst numbers than the benchmark and present it as a win even if numbers can be off.

zippy54y ago

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/18/stock-picking-has-a-terrible...

1 more reply

paxys4y ago

Goety4y ago

The pandemic killed a lot of good bets at Soft Bank. The rogue wave was not kind to anyone.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse