But China is too much coupled with the western economy to even sanction effectively. I think CCP must be watching this to see the cost and benefits Russia gets for invading Ukraine, which would definitely influence their decision even more than Afghanistan would have. If the cost for Russia is too low, then they wouldn't be risking much.
Russia’s economy is interesting. Russian debt is 14%. It isn’t like the UK which requires external input. Their availability cash and balance sheet is quite vast. This limits the immediate impact of sanctions?
Militarily attacking Taiwan would destroy the chip factories. China waiting 100 years to get HK back. They will wait for Taiwan. Slow economic warfare and they get it all without messy bullets.
It might but it also gives Xi something that will immortalise him like Mao. CCP didn't have the military might to fight the British Empire and by the time they could think about fighting UK for Hong Kong, the lease was about to get over and UK knew it might be difficult to get ally support to keep Hong Kong with them.
China does not want to get involved in major conflicts. They will be opportunistic if/when they have a chance to take power, but they are not as risk tolerant as Putin. Only since 2016 or so have they started to come out of their shell to take advantage of relative American weaknesses.
