The problem I've always had in asking for a raise is that it seems to me in a downturn situation, dissatisfied over-performers are probably second in line for layoffs after under-performers. If you can't give them a raise, and they're likely to jump ship soon, and will likely land another job shortly. (I'm not sure how unemployment time of recent layoffs feed back into employer's unemployment insurance rates.)
So, my career has been a big raise my first year out of college, followed shortly by a 2x lateral move to another company, followed by a bunch of single-digit percentage annual increases, followed by another doubling of my salary. A couple of times managers have also pro-actively scheduled meetings with senior management when they feel they've screwed me over on bonus/salary adjustment, and I got assurances they knew they owed me once there was more budget available.
I know I'm too agreeable, but I don't ask for a raise unless I have a written offer in-hand. I've seen varying advice on how to handle counter-offers, but it's also risky to accept a counter-offer if there's a company down-turn, as you're now more expensive and recently have shown a willingness to leave the company.
I guess the solution is just to be confident in your ability to quickly find a new job if you're laid off. I've given plenty of interviews (somewhere between 200 and 500 in my career) and am very confident in my ability to both leet-code and pass technical interview questions. Yet, I'm very hesitant to risk being in the position of interviewing when I don't currently have a job.
