I think if NATO backed Lithuanian agents hadnt tried to foment an independence movement in Kaliningrad then Russia might feel a little more confident that NATO's long term goal wasnt the Balkanization of Russia.

If Russia does get trounced in this war and Ukraine joins NATO I would expect suspiciously well funded independence movements to start popping up in Russia. This conflict wont stop at their borders.

It'll stop and we'll finally lose interest when Russia breaks into 16 different poverty stricken polities.