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0 pointsdatalopers3y ago0 comments

Klarna’s income is tied to consumer discretionary spending which is falling off a cliff.

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wbsss44123y ago

Consumer spending is continuing to steadily grow.[0]

[0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEC96

datalopersOP3y ago

Look at volumes, not just $. Volumes are down Y/Y while $ is just slightly positive due to inflation.

Or just look at Target’s Q1 results and guidance from last week.

wbsss44123y ago

The chart I linked is inflation adjusted.

lljk_kennedy3y ago

That seems to stop showing any data later than Mar 2022?

wbsss44123y ago

That’s true, it doesn’t capture data from the last two months.

The trends in market valuations have been consistent for several months now though, going back into last year. Whereas any collapse in consumer spending has yet to manifest itself for any longer than a month and a half.

sharken3y ago

With COVID becoming just another disease and the uncertainty from the war in Ukraine, it will only be worse from now on for consumer spending.

A lasting peace for Ukraine needs to happen before that will change.

And with Ukraine not willing to give any territory to Russia, that peace seems very far off.

A coup in Russia could change that, but a coup seems very unlikely.

vinyl73y ago

This has nothing to do with Ukraine, and everything to do with inflation and insane increases in the cost of everything.

codefreeordie3y ago

It has a little bit to do with Ukraine, insofar as energy is having its own shortage exacerbated by the conflict on top of the massive inflation that would probably create demand destruction all on its own.

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wbsss44123y ago

Consumer spending is continuing to steadily grow.[0]

[0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEC96

datalopersOP3y ago

Look at volumes, not just $. Volumes are down Y/Y while $ is just slightly positive due to inflation.

Or just look at Target’s Q1 results and guidance from last week.

wbsss44123y ago

The chart I linked is inflation adjusted.

lljk_kennedy3y ago

That seems to stop showing any data later than Mar 2022?

wbsss44123y ago

That’s true, it doesn’t capture data from the last two months.

sharken3y ago

With COVID becoming just another disease and the uncertainty from the war in Ukraine, it will only be worse from now on for consumer spending.

A lasting peace for Ukraine needs to happen before that will change.

And with Ukraine not willing to give any territory to Russia, that peace seems very far off.

A coup in Russia could change that, but a coup seems very unlikely.

vinyl73y ago

This has nothing to do with Ukraine, and everything to do with inflation and insane increases in the cost of everything.

codefreeordie3y ago

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse