Nice business if you can get it.
I went to a police auction where a lot of the recovered stolen property which went unclaimed was being sold along with their surplus vehicles, office furniture, etc.
There were loads of T-tops and naturally the used parts T-top dealers were there to pick them up at rock-bottom prices. They all knew each other.
They knew exactly which car model each one would fit and this had become an increasingly more detail-oriented business.
When a theft victim showed up to a used parts dealer, if the dealer did not have the exact part in stock (or in his network) he would tell the victim that it would take a few days to come in.
Basically, when an actual willing buyer was identified, if the part was not available already, it would be stolen to order from a compatible vehicle by street thieves who had become more detail-oriented over the years themselves.
Right to repair has the downside of not checking for stolen parts like that. Which is why it isn't the black and white issue most people think it is.
The other business opportunity, complementary, is security devices to protect your parts, extra tricky huge locks and their lock-picking sets, secure parking lots along routes at premium fees and then of course a special platinum lounge thing with concessions. And marking parts with license plate numbers.[1]
Great alignment of incentives among the two excellent business opportunities.
[1] That last one I saw in Chile in fact like in 2001, stamping license plates on mirrors. Worse mirror of course. They also did windows, you wonder why, guess they had a glass stamping machine and not enough customers, wanted to get more money from the same customers. The dentist thing basically.
What is software infringement? Does it mean copyright infringement? Stealing a piece of hardware isn't copyright infringment, although maybe some types of reprogramming it would be.
Kind of funny. I've heard people call copyright infringement theft before, but I've never heard anyone call theft copyright infringement until now.
https://mynintendonews.com/2022/02/06/us-government-wants-ga...
So how long does the microchip shortage continue?
Probably at least a couple years.
Imagine if a shipment of 100K Raspberry Pi 2 W Zero came in today. "Everybody knows" if you buy direct you can pay $5, and the lowest price for scalpers on Amazon for a 2 W Zero is currently $149 so you can probably actually sell for $130-ish and clear $125 of scalping profit per unit shipped.
Note there's not much risk... Put $500 of Pi on the credit card, get 100 units, if you can scalp FOUR at hyperinflated prices you broke even, even if the price craters to $5 tomorrow and you're sitting on 96 unsold units.
There's just too much money floating around for the shortage to go away. The only way for a manufacturer to crack the scalper market is to get financing so cheap they can out-finance the entire scalper "industry". But no cross-planet exporter can out-finance the consumer sector credit card printing press of cash, so the scalpers are semi-permanent and some technologies are essentially dead now.
Now personally I've written off the Pi and STM32 ecosystems. Everything in resale is either fake or falsely marked ("8GB" but its actually 2G, etc) or marked up to insane prices so those technologies are dead to me. Unfortunately there's still people trying to use those legacy technologies so prices on Amazon are $149 for a $5 product, but eventually those techs will be widely regarded as dead and then the market can clear and go back to normal. Overall I'm "enjoying" ESP32 products, at least those can still be purchased at a reasonable price...
In my humble opinion, there is no shortage. There is however a huge priorization and a control of the production to elevate the prices.
I guess some people in far east asia figured out they have power the same way as the founders of OPEP did in the 70's. Look at all the microchips based shit you can buy on aliexpress. Doesn't seem they are affected much by shortage.
Since then the industry has been in a cycle of: - Manufacturer finishes a batch of popular chip - Everybody who uses that chip tries to buy next 3-5 year demand - Popular chip is out of stock again
Warning: Paid Pessimist point of view (I've done computer security for far, far too long).
Indefinitely. It doesn't recover. Because (modern, leading process) microchips are the sort of globe spanning supply chain problem that works great, right up until it doesn't. Coolant for some laser is made in this country that's at war. Some critical surface processing chemical is made by that company that had a major power outage and their facility caked up with goo that has to be scraped out. Some semiconductor fab has a worker shortage. Or a water shortage. Or got blown to pieces when some other country tried to invade (TSMC would be nuts if they weren't wired with demolition charges and quietly sure China knew it).
There will always be "something" that interferes with the smooth generation of chips. And there will be some supply, but not as much as people hope for, and they'll be rough around the edges, and, besides, you can't get those surface mount resistors in any quantity right now for your design. And eventually, this starts impacting the funding of the companies working on the newest, latest and greatest process tech, and they don't have the money to continue pushing forward.
We're long past the point when anyone but the most well funded multinationals can even consider a leading process tech foundry - and there are only a few companies on the planet who can make the hardware for it. The supply chain for foundries is just as bad as anything else, if you have a couple billion to drop on one.
And at some point, enough people will find workarounds that don't involve modern silicon that (at least in my arc of the future) demand will drop, so you won't be able to justify the investment in a leading edge fab much beyond the current stuff. Throw a solid recession/depression in, and consumer electronics spending is likely to drop substantially - so there goes a lot of the leading edge demand for some while.
The question, "How much damage can an efficient, just in time optimized global economy take before it fails?" has been discussed for many, many years, and the pessimistic point of view as of now would be, "Less than it's taken and is going to take in the next few years." And at some point, things like "food" and "basic energy" are more important to keep working than the latest consumer toys.
I'm entirely aware this doesn't paint a pretty picture of the future, and it certainly doesn't involve us going to the stars in any quantities, outside perhaps some token boots on Mars. But it's the sort of ragged decline we've seen throughout history, and, I'd argue, that we're firmly in the middle of right now. "Rattling down the backside of the arc of empire, undergoing catabolic collapse" seems to better predict things than a lot of other mental models lately.
Maybe just need to reuse more hardware. Standardize and commodify replacement parts for mobile devices like framework/fairphone. Reduce the amount of IoT crap in toasters/etc. Use multiseat instead of thin clients. Upcycle old computers.
The auto industry buys bolts and makes pistons because the marketplace can't make pistons, roughly. They have the know how if the bolt marketplace collapsed to turn steel rod into bolts, maybe not as easily and cheaply as it can be done now, but if the bolt market died they'd make their own bolts.
The commodity microcontroller is dead. My guess is crappy "homemade" older-gen FPGAs made by GM for GM products will be the future of automotive ECUs and other automotive apps.
In 1980, $100M built you an entire fab. It costs GM about $300M to remodel an old assembly plant. They can either go out of business because 2022 chips are unavailable or build their own fab. Hmm I wonder what they'll do?
The nice part about building an older gen FPGA is it quite accurately emulates an older gen chip, usually using a lot more power and requiring a lot more silicon, but at least it works better than "next estimated shipping date 2024"
Most of our current supply chain problem is on trailing nodes.
Sure, there's not quite enough capacity on the leading nodes: there never is. It's a bit worse now than usual, but...
The big thing that's new here is increased demand plus some disruption on production has shown how little excess production exists for microcontrollers and various low-end ICs in consumer and industrial goods. It's difficult to justify building additional production on mid-end nodes, as margins are likely to fall back down in the future... but one can imagine various ways this nets out OK (e.g. countries deciding domestic production of these items is critical for national security reasons and supplying subsidy).
I made a mistake in a post above, I thought Raspberry PI 2 W were still retail priced at $5, like the old days of the zero (of course those were unobtainable by most people at $5 even in good economic times).
So the Pi foundation is selling for $15 and the market on Amazon has cleared everything for sale below $149.
It would be fair to claim, with some hand waving, that the manufacturer of the Pi boosted the price 200% from $5 to $15, but the scalpers are boosting the price from $15 to maybe $130 will sell and clear the market, so the scalpers are making (150-15)/15*100 = 766% lets round that to 800%.
So for every hyperinflated price dollar, about 20 cents goes to the mfgr and about 80 cents goes to the scalper.
In the long run this destroys middlemen-as-a-service. No matter how inefficient "big corporate" is, its gotta be cheaper than the scalpers, so people are eventually going to buy Pi 2 W zeros from raspi themselves for maybe $40 to $50. Onesie-twosie shipping is expensive for inefficient big corporate so thats maybe even a fair price. Then the scalpers and middlemen will die out with their $130 prices if raspi sells direct for $50.
This whole business about semiconductors shortages affecting vehicle manufacturing is just ridiculous. Humanity has survived without these advanced electronics for ages.
What difference doesn't make if you don't have electronic geegaws in your vehicle?
You might not be able to brick your combine if someone steals it, but nobody can brick it while you're trying to get the harvest in either.
Bureacratic enforcement suffers, but who cares as long as the bureacrats get paid, right?
Or they could try to fix their firmware so this stupid truck didn’t actively try to kill me on a regular basis. Just sayin, freightliner.
Partially this is the company’s fault because they turn off a bunch of stuff for “fuel economy”.
“Case picked up the powertrain control module from the table and nodded at the fence across the table…”
The total number of operable trucks will stay the same - thieves or no thieves.
Edit: Yes, I'm aware there's some DRM. So far, though, not as locked down as the example of John Deere, cryptographic control that requires phone-home, etc.
But: "Moving toward" to DRM? At least in the passenger car market this started happening a long, long time ago.
ECUs and dashes on most VAG (VW Audi Group) cars are coded to each other and have been for around two decades if not longer, though in a fair number of cases you can re-pair them with a non-VW scantool and don't need the dealer, but it's usually a complex and very specific process.
Volvo Cars started DRM'ing the fuck out of every single component that sits on the vehicle's data bus in the mid-2000's after they got bought up by Ford.
If you replaced any component that had a bus connection - which includes things like headlights - you would have to bring the car to a Volvo dealer, who might or might not humor you if they were not the source of the part and the ones to install it ("gosh, we're just fully booked up, going to be two weeks before we can get to it..." etc) The dealer would connect the car to their terminal, which would in turn request an encrypted firmware image for the component from Volvo servers in Sweden, specific to your car's VIN and that component's serial number. That encrypted image would then be sent back and written to the control module.
When that server gets shut off, hundreds of millions of Volvo cars and parts will rapidly become useless save for their scrap value. This isn't a trivial matter; at least in the US, the average age of vehicles on the road is the oldest it's ever been, and given the country's worsening economic inequality, that trend is likely to continue.
The mid-90s electronics in my Range Rover will cope with swapping dashboards by programming the mileage to be whichever is highest between the BECM and dash. It'll moan about "ODOMETER FAULT" for a bit but eventually it'll just give up telling you and set them to be the same. While it's possible to reprogram them it's extremely nontrivial, and no commercial units exist that can do it - and the poke-and-hope brigade that offer "mileage correction" will almost certainly leave you with more problems than you started with.
The electronics in them are very similar to late-80s BMW E32 7-series with a bizarre mix of Motorola, NEC and Intel parts.
If the vehicles are popular enough, the aftermarket will probably find a way around it, if it hasn't already done so.
I’m sitting in one of our terminals right now and there a lot more trucks than usual that are (maybe) waiting on parts to get back on the road. A lot of money tied up in those things not generating revenue parked in the yard.
Pretty much everything in transportation is being pushed in the direction of centralized control; hence, the focus on EVs and the push against biofuels.
The marketing is all "climate change", but the reality is that biofuel-based vehicles can, in theory, be manufactured locally with machine tools, and the fuel can be grown locally as well. I'd bet money that they're better for the environment, too. And no, not interested in some "study" from Harvard funded by people that have a deeply-vested interest in EVs.
Modern battery tech is complicated. Manufacturing has to be much more centralized. And has plenty of places to insert remotely-operated control mechanisms linking to cellular networks.
The excellent thing about electricity is that it's fungible. Electricity from a wind farm in the North Sea, a nuclear plant in the South of France or a Texan solar panel is identical as far as the electric vehicle is concerned. In contrast with bio-fuels if you can't make the right chemical soup for this specific model of engine well too bad, buy a new engine or undertake expensive conversion.
There are immediate practical advantages (many EV owners never spend any time putting "fuel" into their vehicle, unlike with ICE, since just charging it whenever it's sat around doing nothing is easy with electricity) but there are also large strategic advantages in terms of energy independence.
To get even the poor efficiency of modern internal combustion engines took a lot of careful engineering which would be undone by your "local machine tools" approach, so that makes the bargain even worse. In contrast it's easy to build high efficiency electric motors, and we've been doing that in many applications for years.
To the extent the answer isn't EVs that's because the answer is less car culture.
Then there's Aptera, which can charge itself from the sun if you're in a reasonably sunny area, and which has a strong commitment to right-to-repair: https://aptera.us/right-to-repair-commitment-feat-rich-rebui...
They also make their own battery packs, despite not exactly being a large operation. https://aptera.us/battery-update/
Our fire department needs a new ambulance. There is a two year waiting list for one.
The ineptitude of the automotive industry in dragging its heels relying on outdated semiconductor manufacturing is just mind-boggling, but so is the lack of action by the administration to order prioritizing parts and vehicles for public safety, followed by cargo and mass passenger transportation.
It's always confused me, too. You don't leave rotten apples in your fruit bowl.
And it could total their car!
People driving used Hondas may find out insurance won't cover, or will want to just total used cars due to the converter being worth more than the paper value of the car, despite a used market valuing the car much higher!
Cost $1,200 to $2,400 to replace and due to the last round of this theft happening, the legal requirements are now stiff. One can't just go get one of these and install anymore. Has to be done in a shop, and there is traceability on everything. Expensive.
Yet the thieves can still somehow trade the metals.
