If Ukraine is split into Eastern (New Russia) and Western Ukraine, they will have avoided the worst possible outcome, but at significant cost.
If Ukraine had announced permanent neutrality and buffer state status (like Switzerland) that would have been the best outcome for Russia. No troops deployed, no losses, no big threat of NATO on your doorstep.
This game is merely about avoidance of the worst outcome at this point for the Russians
No it doesn't. The US can position Ohio-class submarines in the Baltic, or in the Black Sea, or in the Arctic Ocean. Their Trident missiles, even now 30 years after they were introduced, are still unparalleled. But they can’t strike every missile that Russia has, and in any case, not in just seconds, or even minutes. Russia is a big country; it has lots of road-mobile ICBMs. Those are simply impossible to eliminate in a first strike. Russia has for now, and for the foreseeable future, a guaranteed second strike.
As for the "missile defense", there was never enough confidence in any missile defense system. At this point in time, all missile defense systems can be trivially defeated by a saturation attack.
Zelensky already conceded to not going in NATO in March[1]... Russia partially withdrew after that (combined with the increasing cost of continuing to try to take Kiev), but I believe the current continuation is about taking the south, as I explained here [2], so it seems disingenuous to continue to claim some kind of self-defense case at this point.
1. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/zelensky-ukr...
If they were far closer there could definitely be war.
How about Finland? Putin stated that he has no problem with Finland joining NATO, wouldn't missiles within seconds of St Petersburg be a reason to invade?
' would receive self-governing status once they hold elections ' https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-agrees-to-election-in-occupi...
According to RFE/RL (US state media), Ukraine agreed to hold elections "once all armed formations leave the area." That's not something that happened between 2019 and the beginning of the war.
It was the Eastern Ukrainians that declared independence and broke away from Ukraine, after the coup that deposed a democratically elected albeit corrupt government.
Ukraine to Moscow is ~ 475 KM and lacks significant choke points.
Finland to Moscow is ~780 KM and involves a number of impediments, including a major city in St Petersburg
This isn't as relevant as it seems. Russia considers Murmansk critical because it hosts some of their largest military installations, including a very large portion of their nuclear deterrent. Russia has made clear that it would respond if heavy hardware were moved into Finland, although Putin claimed that they don't care as long as nothing changes physically.[1]
1. https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/vladimir-putin-warns-ag...
No, this isn't right. On the day that Finland announced they would apply, Putin said that it's not a problem as long as heavy NATO hardware wasn't moved into Finland or Sweden. If it were, he claimed, then they would respond. He was claiming that he doesn't care what people do on paper as long as the physical situation doesn't change. [1]
1. https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/vladimir-putin-warns-ag...
The issue isn't Ukraine becoming "NATO controlled" (all NATO members actually control themselves; NATO is a voluntary alliance), it's about keeping it Ukraine-controlled. Putin wants it to be controlled by Moscow instead, and that's why he invaded.
Besides, there are already NATO members close to Moscow. And you know why they joined NATO? Because Russia is also close to them. Putin-supporters keep arguing that Russia needs security guarantees, but completely ignore the security guarantees of Russia's neighbours. And Russia is clearly a far larger threat to its neighbours than those neighbours are to Russia. Few countries have as much buffer built in as Russia does. What right does Russia have to demand entire countries as additional buffer? Where is Ukraine's buffer?
> If Ukraine had announced permanent neutrality and buffer state status (like Switzerland)
Switzerland is not a buffer state. They're neutral because they choose to be. Chose, because Russian aggression is making even the Swiss consider choosing sides.
> that would have been the best outcome for Russia.
Because then Russia would be able to coerce and invade with impunity. Ukraine doesn't need neutrality, it needs security guarantees. Guarantees that Putin is clearly unwilling to give, and NATO is able to provide.
Putin's aggression is Russia's biggest enemy.
Ukraine is actually controlled by the US State Department, and has been since the Maidan Coup overthrew a democratically elected leader.
It was Washington & Brussels that issued an Ultimatum to Yanokovych in https://youtu.be/ROTwyP5no08?t=381 that preceded the protests and led to the coup.
It was US State Department leaders that selected, rather than elected, Ukraine's leaders post-coup https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WV9J6sxCs5k
The US's own STRATFOR, Private CIA, even calls this a coup https://archive.ph/NAXCc
It was the Oligarch Kolomoisky that bankrolled Zelensky's campaign, providing him protection, a bodyguard, vehicles, and other resources https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXgli7TpINw
However, it is also known that Burisma hired Hunter Biden, https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Report%20document...
and, Burisma is controlled by the Oligarch Kolomoisky https://nypost.com/2021/03/06/businessmen-accused-of-ukraine...
It was the US State Department that also sanctioned the Oligarch Kolomoisky for public corruption in 2021 https://www.state.gov/public-designation-of-oligarch-and-for...
