in the past, we had great returns due to increasing population, plus productivity increases and in large part due to dividends. all three of those are severly decreased going forward for the next 100 years.
Good luck.
In the long term however we’re all dead so being proven right in 80 years time is meaningless to any investor.
Just because weather is a series with such prediction characteristics has no bearing on asset prices having such prediction characteristics. By this reasoning, I could claim since some series are completely predictable, thus stocks are too. Since this level of hand waviness is clearly wrong in the latter case, it is also wrong in the former.
The fact is that asset prices represent value of underlying items, and if those items gain in value, then asset prices likely do too. Since not all asset prices grow or fall in lockstep, then there is always growth in investments possible, if you have enough insight to pick more growing and less shrinking assets.
And the entire set of assets is also likely to grow in value, since people are still working at creating more value.
>being proven right in 80 years time is meaningless to any investor being proven right in 80 years time is meaningless to any investor
True, since they very rarely care about 80 year investments. If they can obtain growth in the near term, then that is pretty much all they need.
So are you now saying there is growth possible, just not in 80 years? Or that you really just don't know?
