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0 pointspishpash3y ago0 comments

I don't know, people seem pretty greedy still. VIX barely at 30, PE10 near pre-pandemic highs, real yields negative out to 3-4 years, and markets are orderly. If you get weeks and weeks of 4% daily drops, real yields at 5%, and hedge funds being force liquidated like 2008, then you know real fear.

Look at how far behind the Fed has gotten: https://www.longtermtrends.net/real-interest-rate/

0 comments

ericmay3y ago

(This is not financial advice)

Ignore the "be greedy"* part of the person you are replying to (although your hesitation is kind of proving their point a bit) but follow the advice of the Intelligent Investor.

When markets go up, everyone is happy to continue to invest. When they go down? People stop investing. That's precisely what you shouldn't be doing. Staying the course and continuing to invest regularly is key. When markets are sour that's when people get nervous and alter their behavior.

* Want to be greedy? Start buying Coinbase stock and Bitcoin. Notice how everyone is scared right now?

nly3y ago

The stock market has 100 years of data behind it, as well as a munch of somewhat sound economic theory w.r.t capital allocation and earnings.

Bitcoin does not. There's no reason at all why Bitcoin can't go to zero in the next 10 years. The stock market (as a whole), not so much

shshshd3y ago

This is great advice that bets that the system is a going concern. If the system collapses, then the bet goes sour.

Of course, if the system collapses green pieces of paper will be just as valuable as any stock certificate.

astrange3y ago

The "system" is doing fine - in fact the US economy is doing great. The stock market is not the economy.

pishpashOP3y ago

Yeah, it's the best time to invest since ... (checks watch) ... 18 months ago. I'm sorry, at an investment horizon of 10-20 years, that's not a slick deal. I am also talking about bitcoin. If it goes to $5000 then we're talking.

I'm not sure who were investing past mid-2021, to me there was nothing at all publicly investible for the long-term at that point. You were guaranteed an inflation-adjust loss just looking at how deeply negative real rates were.

Spooky233y ago

Typically the shit hits the fan in the fall. You’ll have a crash/correction than a deeper one. That’s when you buy.

Personally, I went mostly cash and TIPS last year. You should too.

kobalsky3y ago

to be fair there's a good chance we are nowhere near the bottom.

if SPY dips below 250 then you'll start seeing the fear of god in some faces.

roflyear3y ago

Homie when is the last time weeks and weeks of 4% drops happened?

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse