> then Ford will presumably make some money from me
That's not at all certain when buying and EV.
> but it looks to me like they're losing a lot of their first-mover advantages now
That's what people have been saying since 2014 and Tesla has just continued to grow.
> and they'll probably be losing some margin
Given that they have improved prices quite a bit and still have lots of order backlog, I would suspect the opposite.
Maybe total operational margin will be down because of Berlin and Texas factories, but automotive margin is unlikely to go down.