> But if your distro changes the init, you're in for a long period of relearning and retooling everything.
Depends on your distro's tooling and focus. At some point in the past, NixOS actually did switch away from OpenRC (IIRC) to systemd, supposedly without all that much fuss for end users.
On the other hand, migrating away from using Nix for builds would be a huge, huge deal and a big controversy to NixOS users.