> This is the obvious answer for any rational observer."Obvious" and "rational" in one sentence seem to me suspicious every time. I'm suspicious about "obvious" itself, because of my math education, but when combined with "rational" it is just too much for me.
The answer you refer is a simpliest one: it doesn't need any special assumptions of Musk's personality and it is built on a smallest possible sample of relevant facts. May be it means that it is an obvious answer? May be. But it doesn't mean that it closer to reality than more complex opinions relying on more data points and more complex models of Musk's personality, not just an assumption of his rationality.
