Yeah, they can't 100% win. They don't need to. In fact, even if they did 100% win, they'd still find reasons to need to crush some people just to keep people reminded of who has the guns.
I wouldn’t be so sure. Riots don’t require guns to have an effect, as the UK has seen quite recently. Point being: an analysis that draws its conclusion from the presence of state violence is incomplete if it doesn’t also consider violence on the part of citizens/subjects.