Excellent note, and very accurate!
I can start a company that sells your AGPLv3 software tomorrow. I just have to comply with the terms & conditions. If I'm doing absolutely nothing but operating the software without change, I can satisfy the license by saying "git clone github.com/your/software", done.
Where things get murky is on the concept of linking/derivative works. If I operate a cloud service and make changes to your software to make it use my cloud systems efficiently, those changes have to be open-sourced under AGPLv3. Does that leak too much proprietary information about my systems? Very possibly. That might be enough to stop me. But if I keep going down that road, I end up risking a legal argument that our systems have become so tangled together that parts of my software fall under AGPLv3.
For most companies, this is simply not worth the risk. MongoDB took it one step further with the SSPL:
> you must make the Service Source Code available via network download to everyone at no charge, under the terms of this License. [...] “Service Source Code” means the Corresponding Source for the Program or the modified version, and the Corresponding Source for all programs that you use to make the Program or modified version available as a service, including, without limitation, management software, user interfaces, application program interfaces, automation software, monitoring software, backup software, storage software and hosting software, all such that a user could run an instance of the service using the Service Source Code you make available.
This is basically the anti-AWS license: for AWS to run MongoDB proper, they'd need to expose source for huge amounts of their backplane. It's also not open source under almost anyone's definition.
