Interesting maxims in the conclusion:
"Three maxims can help us avoid dangerous failures of recognition, and speed learning when unexpected things happen.
1. Everything we believe about the world is provisional – “serving for the time being.” Adding the words “so far” to assertions about reality reminds us of this.
2. Unjustified certainty is very costly. The greater your certainty that you are right when you are
wrong, the longer it will take you to recognize and incorporate new data into your system of belief, and to change your mind. (...)
3. Pay special attention to data that is unlikely in light of your current beliefs; it has much more information per unit, all else equal. In this sense, information content is measured as the potential to change how you think about the world. Information that is probable in light of your beliefs will have minimal effects on your understanding. Improbable information, if incorporated, will change it.
It is doubtless correct that many awful things that have not happened before will yet happen. Foresight regarding such events would be nice. It would be nicer still if we could recognize more quickly what is happening right in front of us. That is the right starting point for thinking strategically about the warming climate."
