It's possible a billion people will face famine in the next year or two as a result of the loss of grain from Russia and Ukraine, along with the loss of Fertilizers (or being priced out of them)
Energy Blindness -- We're so used to having free flowing oil cheap enough to burn for energy, it's an assumption built into everything. Unless we plan for the end of easy to reach oil, we could have supply chains collapsing everywhere.
That’s what I was going to say. Some people have been talking about it [1, 2], but it’s not yet getting the attention it deserves.
[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20220702164210/https://www.nytim...
[2] https://www.harperbusiness.com/book/9780063230477/The-End-of...
Hogwash. Globalization is good, Globalization is here to stay. Whatever is the current location causing issues with Globalization will simply be routed around. There are plenty of countries that would love to be part of the global supply chain with. The only way any manufacturing is coming back to the rich industrialized countries is that it involves a lot of really good robots. Which is also good.
> It's possible a billion people will face famine in the next year or two as a result of the loss of grain from Russia and Ukraine, along with the loss of Fertilizers (or being priced out of them)
Again, hogwash. The market will force diets to change and producers will start producing more. Fertilizer production could be an issue but again, diets and markets will adjust.
> Energy Blindness -- We're so used to having free flowing oil cheap enough to burn for energy, it's an assumption built into everything. Unless we plan for the end of easy to reach oil, we could have supply chains collapsing everywhere.
A known issue that will not happen overnight. The world is racing toward non-oil based energy, so I don't see this being an issue. Don't get me wrong, this one I actually agree with, but it won't happen overnight. The world/markets will adapt.
I think we’d see the world market divided in two. It’s already starting with semi conductors (chip 4 alliance).
For some key industries US will also bring some of the manufacturing in house instead of only relying on allies. Again you are already seeing this with semi conductors: US is bringing manufacturing to its own soil and South Korea has already made some raw material processing domestic instead of relying on cheaper global market.
The U.S. is already losing sea hegemony. This was a key piece that enabled globalization to begin with.
I suppose Russia is an obvious example in the EU but are their other examples?
I mean, I think it'd be nice, but in the US our leaders are so fucking corrupt and owned by business interests that I don't see it happening until at least all the boomers/Gen Xers die off.
