> Do you believe this?

There are a lot of built-in incentives for manufacturers to switch to electric once the market demand exists.

Less moving parts to warranty means potentially less long-tail costs for parts as well as less capital allocation for potential warranty service claims paid to dealerships. Less moving parts that can fail. Less parts in general. AWD in electrics is typically done with a front and rear motor configuration versus using moving parts to transfer power from the front to the rear.

More opportunities to upsell with lower capital costs. Model stratification by power output in ICE typically means more complex engineering (forced induction) or larger engine; both of which require significantly more R&D, testing, and validation. Once you sink capital investments into an ICE engine and manufacturing line, you need to reuse it over many years across a large range of vehicles to recoup the cost.

Model stratification in electrics is via bigger battery packs (stuff more of the same cells in there) and multiple motors.

Basically, electric cars are fiscally better for manufacturers in every way -- so long as consumers are willing to pay the premium AND willing to live with the inconveniences (less infrastructure for refueling, longer refueling, range anxiety).

What Tesla did was de-risk the market by showing that consumers will buy the product despite its flaws.

I believe it. There's a stark difference in comparing the available EV models from mainstream manufactures between 2018 and 2022. Hyundai/KIA in particular are nailing it when it comes to EVs.

Manufactures are already quietly sunseting ICEs. It just doesn't read as significant right now, because the models which are going away are not the big, important ones. But manufactures are setting the stage for the transition of popular nameplates to EVs (see: Mustang, F150)

They are public companies; it will be kinda obvious from their annual reports if they aren't investing/devesting enough to hit those goals, and if they dont announce it to the public that will cause them bigger problems.

They anticipate increased costs for ICE vehicles and increased profit from EV which is why they're moving forward. They don't control the segments of the market they need to make it happen, so it's a risky bet. However, the manufacturers that are switching first are largely luxury brands, so they make a healthy enough profit that even if they stumble they wont be under water.

All you have to do is look at press releases from 8 years ago and see how many of those plans actually happened. You should expect the plans from today to work out similarly.