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0 pointsmullen3y ago0 comments

> Deglobalization -- In the US, we're about to be forced to rebuild all the manufacturing we outsourced since the 1970s. It's not going to go well for those countries dependent on imported food or energy

Hogwash. Globalization is good, Globalization is here to stay. Whatever is the current location causing issues with Globalization will simply be routed around. There are plenty of countries that would love to be part of the global supply chain with. The only way any manufacturing is coming back to the rich industrialized countries is that it involves a lot of really good robots. Which is also good.

> It's possible a billion people will face famine in the next year or two as a result of the loss of grain from Russia and Ukraine, along with the loss of Fertilizers (or being priced out of them)

Again, hogwash. The market will force diets to change and producers will start producing more. Fertilizer production could be an issue but again, diets and markets will adjust.

> Energy Blindness -- We're so used to having free flowing oil cheap enough to burn for energy, it's an assumption built into everything. Unless we plan for the end of easy to reach oil, we could have supply chains collapsing everywhere.

A known issue that will not happen overnight. The world is racing toward non-oil based energy, so I don't see this being an issue. Don't get me wrong, this one I actually agree with, but it won't happen overnight. The world/markets will adapt.

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esel2k3y ago

You mention markets will adopt as response. To a degree yes and probably richer countries, but I don’t believe poorer countries will. Let’s take East Africa as example: If your boat full of corn doesn’t arrive it does not arrive, full stop. There is little to adjust. Same goes with medication. We often think in front of our doors, but if large, economically important countries start to struggle with food or medicine , there will be an impact on others as well.

creakingstairs3y ago

I don’t think the current state of globalisation can last. It won’t be complete deglobalisation either.

I think we’d see the world market divided in two. It’s already starting with semi conductors (chip 4 alliance).

For some key industries US will also bring some of the manufacturing in house instead of only relying on allies. Again you are already seeing this with semi conductors: US is bringing manufacturing to its own soil and South Korea has already made some raw material processing domestic instead of relying on cheaper global market.

Thorentis3y ago

Energy is one thing, but I don't see any good replacements for plastics, especially medical grade plastic. We rely on oil for far more than just energy.

HobbseanMess3y ago

Virtually everything you said is wrong.

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