Everything feels very broken. Nobody wants to work. Even people who have been asked to come to the office are screwing off at least 1-2 days of the week and no one is able to do a thing.
A massive group of people are essentially walking around with zero faith in their government. If they’re not hostile, they’re apathetic.
Money is still completely wonky. All older economic indicators have stopped meaning anything because money has stopped meaning all that much.
Healthcare feels even more broken than before. You’ve got more deaths than ever and chronic sufferers are the worst hit.
I feel very pessimistic when I look at the world right now. Everything feels very chaotic and I don’t see a way out of the disorder.
The world was just very different pre-2020. It's all just gone phone call nonsense. Everyone is slacking off, productivity is through the floor, endless queues for everything, shortages, public transport use way down, etc.
I haven't even had a proper full time job since then because as far as I can tell literally 0 work from office jobs exist any more. They just went extinct.
The idea of even using an indicator like inflation to capture this is weird because there's been a qualitiative, not quantitative, change in what life is. It's not just "before but a different % of things".
True since at least 1894 https://twitter.com/stephenlautens/status/155123736437847654...
It's just weird.
But yes... Lockdowns are major reason of so called "inflation". Caused by few corporates. But I'm not sure if majority reflects that.
It would not be a surprise if there are policies announced to further tax the young to give 'Granny' more free money off her bills (the existing winter fuel allowance is not means tested), and further free transport round major cities (over 60s travel London free). Then there's the echoes of the lockdown nightmare, mass punishment of the young so the old could feel safer.
The response to any complaints about this generational vampirism is always of course; "you'll be old one day". Inheritance is rare to appear, all too often you hear that Granny has given it all to the local cat sanctuary. Patience is running thin and apathy is higher than ever.
If you're young, this country actively punishes and steals from you, then tells you to stop complaining. Finding hope in anyone under 60 is a tough task.
And all you get is £170 a week pension if you are lucky.
So the social security equivalent in the UK comes to about 28% of the salary of most UK workers.
It does only kick in if you are paid more than £240 a week for the employee part and £170 for the employer part, and does taper off for the employee to 3.5% for income above £4300 a month but for all intents and purposes this hold true for most workers.
We are actually back in the UK this week visiting family who asked if we miss living here and my wife and I just looked at each other and said "nope!" in unison. It is hard to explain it in a short post here but the UK just doesn't feel "like home" to me anymore.
I am not saying [redacted] is perfect. But our quality of life is much higher in [redacted] than it was in the UK and we are both very happy we followed through and moved.
(Edit: I probably shouldn't have made this comment. Let's just say I am not disagreeing with you.)
I often make comments I feel I need to, and later succumb to the stupid social network reaction of "oh no 3 people downvoted it, surely that means 3 people hate me and no one agrees".
Sometimes things need to be said regardless.
I think we are heading for a tipping point. Public services are probably already past a point where staff quitting is piling more work on those left, resulting in more people quitting. I suspect there will be a terminal snowball which guts the NHS at least and leaves it unable to function (by design of the Tories, of course).
I suspect the brain drain will be similar. Young people don't want to live in some tax haven, they want a country that functions. Brexit has made it harder, but people will find a way eventually. People were talking Canada, the Netherlands, etc... (Notably for here, very much not the US which is seen as having all of the same problems the UK has).
I would say the most likely outcome is a further diminishing of the UKs international importance, together with some risk of Scotland breaking apart.
* being reliant on gas for both heat and power
* a collapsing pound driving prices higher in local currency
* no supply guarantee since we left the EU (we are now "at the end of the pipe")
* some of the most energy inefficient housing in Europe after decades of not investing or taking climate change seriously
* very high taxes, very low spending on poor people and a big deficit (so we have no room to bail out users)
* no domestic storage so we are just constantly exposed to spot prices
And that's just the issue around Russian gas. We also have dozens of other economic chickens coming home to roost...
https://www.statista.com/statistics/225698/monthly-inflation...
I'd go to the US or Canada happily. I'd go to the EU. Singapore has a company office and Australia is great from what I saw on holiday.
I have a chat scheduled with my boss in Sept, I might start sounding out a transfer.
My point is that even with a comfortable salary, I will feel ~£600/month in energy. I can only fear for people that earn much less than me.
38F = 3½C
57F = 14C
Not sure why you used Farenheit, but I live in the north too and it's colder and warmer than that. Currently 22C (61F) here in rainy Manchester.
First, I'm not in Manchester, considerably more northern, so why try to compare?
Secondly, Manchester's average temperature in August is close to 16C (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchester#Climate).
Thirdly what is strange about the temperature on a given day being higher than the average?
People from Europe likely already have a vague idea of what the temp is like in northern parts of it, and 45% of HN is from US according to https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3298905
George Orwell, 1984.
And so a chunk of the masses vacillate between "I believe virtually everything I read, and I think that is what makes me more of a selective human than someone who doesn't believe anything."[0] and "Game over man, Game Over."[1]
[0] This is Spinal Tap
[1] Aliens
Seems much of Europe is still chained to LNG, and that demand is even wreaking havoc in countries which have been previously quite self-sustained, or really don't use LNG much themselves - with Norway being a good example.
The political unity so quickly after the start of the war was unexpected (and admirable).
Ten years from now, Europeans will drive electric (if they'll drive at all), solar panels will be everywhere, and the continued flex-work-from-home revolution will have created an enormous amount of extra time for everybody. They'll be comfy in their sustainable homes and healthy cities, those few years of inflation a memory only.
It's a tough transition, that eventually every country needs to make, but Europe will be ahead of the rest of the world by miles.
And in the US, 10 years from now, the next gas price spike will again have people start to whine (yet again), we'll still be coughing on fumes when dropping our kids of at their school, the energy grid will continue to be unreliable in face of every minor or major natural disaster, and we'll wonder why nothing really materially has changed (and then blame the government).
Most cars sold in Europe aren't electric: only 13%. Average car life in Europe is 11 years or something like that. So, no, ten years from now Europeans won't be all driving electric, far from it. Also something like 2/3rd of all europeans live in suburbs or rural: so, yes, they'll still be driving (or using horses). People enjoying the public transports in cities are a minority.
It was there for few weeks. But soon everyone was blaming others for the situation and not doing enough.
We are in this shit because of Putins war (75% of the blame), Europes general hatred of having a military (15%, say), and finaly Biden not being willing to use military force directly to stop Russia.
We can't do anything about the first, it will take decades to solve the second, but if Biden was willing to take of the gloves, Donbas and Crimera + a good chunk of Southern Russia could be in Ukranian hands come spring.
Then we could open up for their gas fields and end the problem.
Russia will try to push the narrative that this will mean a direct confrontation between them and NATO, but having seen how they do in Ukraine, this hardly matters.
Yes Russia have nukes, and some of their rockets no doubt work, but this scenarios does not trigger their criteria for use of nukes.
Or investment into basic insulation and house upgrades. Single glazing and simple brick is still very common in the UK. Many houses could use much less energy if they didn't lose lots of it through the windows and ceilings in the first place.
It just needs to implemented!
Just imagine how much the politicians suck: Science has given them the solution for the energy problem, science has showed how to even make it economically, and has done that already years ago. All politics would have to do is implemented. But they cannot even do that ...
Right.
And this has a very important implication. For home owners who're currently deciding which heating technology to replace an oil or gas furnace with.
Biomass and Biogas will be needed urgently in the near future to supply powerplants (of utility order of magnitude) that can then stabilize the electrical grid against the fluctuations that are going to be caused by more and more wind and solar power.
The way I see it - as enticing as it may be - to replace an oil/gas furnace with a wood pellet powered one in our current situation is the wrong choice in the long-term.
The prices for electricity will rise further, yes, but the crucial role of biomass and biogas as one means to stabilize the grid will IMO lead to even greater price increases for the latter.
The solutions are, in part:
- National gas storage reserve (to buffet price/supply spikes somewhat).
- Expansion of green energy.
- Programs to reduce usage (e.g. home and business improvements).
Luckily for the UK extremely efficient heat pump based heating/cooling solutions that offer greater than 100% efficiency exist[0]. It is just a matter of the political will to covert away from gas to electricity and then retrofitting homes.
Like many European countries, it is usual to heat German homes with gas boilers. You could (and if we don't want even worse climate change, must) replace those with electrical heating, most likely heat pumps with resistive backup. A heat pump doesn't care whether the electricity powering it is from a solar panel or a wind farm or what.
There MAY be a few cases where alternatives are harder to find (where you need the chemistry of the gas rather than the energy), but that is a pretty small percentage overall.
But to produce energy at prices that are competitive to typical prices for NG is pretty hard without either coal or cost efficient nuclear, at least in colder climates. Solar is perhaps close to becoming cheaper in sunny, dry areas further south, but wind power looks like a poor alternative at the scale needed, since it's so unreliable. Maybe one day batteries or other storage will be cheap enough that we can store wind power for a week or more, but for now, it looks like the only low-CO2 option is nuclear.
Sunak thinks taxing businesses and the well off so that we can fund support to the less well off is the right approach.
Labour and Lib Dems are further left in that they want to cut off any growth in electricity prices and maybe nationalise electricity firms.
The Tories are so out of ideas and people with any talent or charisma, they think these two are the best they have to offer. Both have literally nothing to address this except doubling down on fantasy economics that we can see hasn't worked up to this point.
(alternate link)
- Investment bank Citigroup forecasts UK inflation will hit 18.6 per cent in January 2023 — the highest peak in almost half a century — because of soaring wholesale gas prices.
- The bank predicted that the country’s retail energy price cap — which limits how much the average household pays for heating and electricity — would be raised to £4,567 in January and then £5,816 in April (approx $6880, €6850) compared with the current level of £1,971 a year. It added that the shifts would lead to inflation “entering the stratosphere”.
- UK and European wholesale natural gas prices are already trading at close to 10 times normal levels and other forecasters have also raised their inflation predictions.
- The energy regulator Ofgem will on Friday (26 Aug) announce the energy price cap for the period between October and January, which most analysts expect to rise to more than £3,500 for a household with average usage of energy — an increase of 75 per cent on current levels.
Related article from Reuters: Europe's efforts to shield households from soaring energy costs https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europes-efforts-shie...
6K seems reasonable for a family's annual energy bill. Frankly, it seems on the lower end for such a climate. What's really absurd in the UK is property prices. You'd be able to afford all the energy you desire if you weren't paying 10x what it should cost for housing.
Are you really suggesting that housing costs should average around £1400 per year (about one tenth the average annual rent [1]), but energy costs more than 4 times that amount are reasonable?
[0] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personal...
Relative to wages in the UK, absolutely. The working class is getting absolutely fleeced over there.
> I strongly disagree that nearly 20% of the median household income
Same thing here, there's two sides to every equation. The UK has to import almost all of it's energy, importing is expensive.
It seems to me, global energy demands are outstripping supply, and energy is going to become a permanently larger portion of everyone's budget. The way of life we've enjoyed the last 70+ years in the western world, that life is quickly changing.
What do you think the government should do?
At some point if the rich continue to demand sacrifice of the poor to prop up their gathering of wealth, it'll be guillotines in the streets. Historically Britain's upper class has been sensible at offering compromise to avoid extreme change, but it appears the current crop think their control of the media is enough to keep the population placid while they suffer.
So far, they appear to have been right. Who knows how long that'll continue as things get significantly harder for the average person.
It does mean we customers will endure higher energy costs for longer - but it will greatly soften the impact on the massive spikes we are set to see over the next 6+ months. It will also have the knock on effect of reducing inflationary pressures, making the need for rapid interest rate rises less likely, reducing borrowing costs.
Look again at what can be done to further enhance and accelerate investments in alternative energy production and storage. This includes looking at tackling planning regulations which so often tie up critical infrastructure projects in the UK for years (sometimes decades), too much nimbyism. Often by peeps who moved next to an existing facility (be it a windfarm, a nuclear plant, etc.) and then complain when it's suggested the plant be extended ... shocker ... who'd have thought that could happen! Invest in a massive, nation wide home insulation scheme - properly invest, not the silly little schemes they've tried so far. Which were badly thought out and badly implemented, and probably full of corruption and wastage.
At the same time continue (and back-date) the "windfall" tax on exploration and production - this wasn't "profit", this was "free money". The companies did not generate this income from improved working practices, efficiency drives, deployment of new technologies, etc. etc. - it was in nearly all senses a windfall. The oil majors are unlikely to invest it ("we don't even know what to do with all this income!" ...), and even if they did it will have absolutely no impact on the lives of UK citizens for years and years - the problem exists now, it needs a solution now.
The whole situation is made more infuriating given the UK produces 50% (+/-) of its own gas. But thanks to our exposure to the prevailing market and the ease of transport to the continent we are suffering as much (heck, more than) many other nations in Europe.
A potential new prime minister trying to defend profits of energy companies recently on TV just shows you the Modus operandi of the political class.
It might push people to riots in the streets.
>The investment bank predicted that the country’s retail energy price cap — which limits how much households pay for heating and electricity — would be raised to £4,567 in January and then £5,816 in April, compared with the current level of £1,971 a year.... Nabarro said Citi’s new forecasts had taken account of a 25 per cent increase in wholesale gas prices last week and a 7 per cent rise in wholesale electricity prices.
No price controls can account for the fact that energy prices are up a lot globally. Pretending they're not up and keeping the price cap in place is worse. First it doesn't discourage energy usage. That's a big purpose of prices in a market economy. Second, when something is priced below market price it inevitably leads to shortages. This will have to be addressed through some kind of political action that will be sub-optimal. Rather than a young person seeing higher energy prices and adjusting their AC, while an old person may choose to pay the higher price, you'll see ham-fisted conservation measures.
If you're against having the customer's price reflect more closely the market price, you have to propose an alternative. Do you want people to use less? If so, how do you do that? Or do you want people to continue using the same, pretend the high prices don't exist and just pay for it through taxes? Either way, the money will have to come from somewhere or rationing will have to take place. There's no free lunch
We already don’t have AC in summers which are growing more and more extreme (regularly over 90F, and sometimes over 100F) - there’s nothing there to turn off.
Edit: Big power retail companies in the UK are making record profits, and so is generation.
Tax that aggressively to start with.
Heat pumps would be better, but there is already an insane queue for those.
Sure, but how would these energy companies fancy being under the thumb of Putin.
If they want to benefit from the spoils of free markets with consumers who haven't died from covid then they must pay their fair share to maintain them. So whether it's a cap on the prices they can make, or a tax on their profits. Doesn't really matter. The burden cannot be met only by energy consumers.
From Reuters: "France has committed to capping an increase on regulated electricity costs at 4%. To help do this the government has ordered utility EDF (EDF.PA), which is 80% state owned, to sell more cheap nuclear power to rivals"
(Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europes-efforts-shie...)
I could foresee riots again like the 2010 ones but I doubt it'd do to much change other than lead to some imprisoned people and property damage.
So, unlike, say, the poll tax riots i doubt itll lead to any meaningful British/English political changes.
It may add fuel to Northern Ireland joining Ireland/Scottish independence though.
This is the world on modern monetary theory. Not even once.
Hyperinflation and energy crisis are here.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War#Whig_and_Mar...
Edit: For context, the parent previously stated that this perhaps may become the first real revolution in Britain.
https://www.google.com/search?q=UK+inflation+to+hit+18.6%25+...
What could possibly go wrong?
wait until you learn how much lower people are getting paid now that they depend on a work visa. hint: a lot less than europeans coming in pre-brexit.
Childcare and retail come to mind if you like examples.
The people at the top today are incompetent and lack principles. No better than the corrupt dictators of uncivilized nations. I almost get satisfaction seeing them driving that sinking ship all the way to the seafloor. That's the most meritocratic thing I've seen in a decade.
- Isolate their house and/or live in a small, well isolated apartment
- Buy solar panels and a heatpump.
- Save gas by wearing an extra sweater and setting the thermostat a bit lower.
are affected far less by this massive inflation.
Of course, for the 37% in the UK that do not own a house (probably because they cannot afford it) and/or convince their landlord to isolate their property, it is unjust.
Since more people own their house than rent it seems that this particular inflation wave makes the economy more just rather than less just, given that the biggest polluters are hit the the hardest.
If the house was isolated that might actually make heat loss worse, because it suggests other homes are quite distant. For example my sister's house is an "end terrace" so one wall of it won't lose much heat since the other side is somebody else's house and no doubt they also keep warm in the winter. In contrast my mother's house is perched up on a hill, I wouldn't quite describe it as "isolated" but certainly she's going to spend a lot of money heating it.
How many of those home owners do you think have tens of thousands of pounds just laying around that they can spend on those upgrades? (and that's after taking in to consideration the grants available)
1 Renewables: The solution exists already but no gov't (in particular the UK) is implementing it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/100%25_renewable_energy
2 The UK gov't rather is arresting people demonstrating for housing insulation. This is probably the dumbest thing a gov't can do, since insulation is a "bipartisan" issue and everybody would profit from it.
3 On top of this the UK is on the verge of picking a fight with the EU and risking a trade war by its illegal and unilateral changes to the Brexit agreement. NI political issues aside, no sane gov't would do that at this point in time.
The UK govt has done better than most on renewables in the past decade. Wind energy in particular. In 2020, wind power supplied 24.8% of all UK electricity, and this will continue to increase as major new wind farms - some of the largest in the world - come online in the coming years:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_the_United_Kingd...
The UK grid should begin to have periods of 100% fossil-free generation by 2025:
https://www.nationalgrideso.com/news/great-britain-track-per...
The UK doesn't appear anywhere in the ranking on the Wikipedia link of countries with >90% electricity from renewables.
You're last link also pertains to electricity only BTW (you make it sound like all energy is considered) and the UK aims for 2025 to have "periods" of fossil-free electricity generation, while other countries do that already today and not just for "periods".
I'm sorry, but the UK sucks.
My only consolation to you is that a number of other western countries also suck.
Standard hedonism of the typical climate change deniers here. Go on, people, nothing to see ...
