-- Ian Fleming
One note can show good sound.
Two notes can show good intonation.
3 notes can show a sense of rhythm.
During the days and weeks leading up to Russia's move into Ukraine, the US rhetorized over and over again about Nord Stream. All the time the main issue was that the EU must not buy LNG from Russia, it must agree to USAs "energy dominance" politics and buy LNG from them and only them.
This is a way to make sure that when winter comes, the EU has nowhere to go for LNG but to the US.
It's getting more and more clear that the one major obstacle to true US hegemony is not Russia or China, it's the EU with its strict principles, laws and regulations, and that the US is working hard to wear down this resistance and force the EU into dependence and coerciveness.
That phrase doesn't mean what you think it means.
Clearly US psyops are stronger than anything Russia puts out because EU governments have been persuaded to participate in a crusade in Ukraine against their own economic self interests.
Making the EU kowtow to America may be in American interests but it certainly is not in EU interests.
I am not sure when this myth of Russia psyop dominance came from. Only seemed to become a thing after Hillary lost the election and Brexit. More likely source of blame for that falls on endogenous populism in reaction to economic and social changes in the last decade or two. Russia was not responsible for bailing out western banks while real wages stagnated and also was not responsible for widespread immigration and others consequences of globalisation and conflict in the middle east and Africa.
Reality does not correspond to the social media mythology that Russia has some how infiltrated western politics at a significant scale.
However, the blown pipes limit the movement of the German government. It is more stable towards protests if a cold winter occurs as there is no option left to appease Russia as the restrictions in the gas sector aren't a product of a revertible decision anymore. Being cold can't be ignored, which a war in Ukraine can be. In addition, any half-baked compromise Russia could offer accompanied by influencing Germany's opinion with gas isn't an option anymore.
In the end, this could even benefit Germany which lacks clear and brave decisions of its leaders. Not deciding if you want to evade the wall you are driving onto right or left eventually leads to crashing into it
It benefits however US interests: Germany becomes a more stable partner, no matter how this thing turns out. Currently Russia is blamed, so the German reaction is more severe. In addition, LNG prices are higher, but I don't think that was the main reason for that operation in the first place. Blaming the US, even if their responsibility is certain, in a time of crisis won't happen as a united front against Russia is still needed.
The more I think about it, the more I come to the conclusion that Poland's interests didn't lead to such a operation. They have even more problems with high gas prices than Germany because they don't have long term contracts with Norway.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2004/02/27/r... ("Reagan Approved Plan to Sabotage Soviets" (2004))
- "At the time, the United States was attempting to block Western Europe from importing Soviet natural gas. There were also signs that the Soviets were trying to steal a wide variety of Western technology. Then, a KGB insider revealed the specific shopping list and the CIA slipped the flawed software to the Soviets in a way they would not detect it."
- "In order to disrupt the Soviet gas supply, its hard currency earnings from the West, and the internal Russian economy, the pipeline software that was to run the pumps, turbines, and valves was programmed to go haywire, after a decent interval, to reset pump speeds and valve settings to produce pressures far beyond those acceptable to pipeline joints and welds," Reed writes."
Possibly the first software supply-chain attack in history? Before the term even existed.
"The result was the most monumental non-nuclear explosion and fire ever seen from space," he recalls, adding that U.S. satellites picked up the explosion."
Also:
"When the pipeline exploded, Reed writes, the first reports caused concern in the U.S. military and at the White House. "NORAD feared a missile liftoff from a place where no rockets were known to be based," he said, referring to North American Air Defense Command. "Or perhaps it was the detonation of a small nuclear device." However, satellites did not pick up any telltale signs of a nuclear explosion.
"Before these conflicting indicators could turn into an international crisis," he added, "Gus Weiss came down the hall to tell his fellow NSC staffers not to worry."
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/who-will-rid-me-of-thi...
Why blow it up when the German governing parties and the largest opposition party don’t want to move ahead with Nord Stream 2 anyway?
US sees this conflict dragging out throughout the winter. They cannot afford to have EU nation states go back to Russian Gas.
I don't understand why wouldn't they want to perform this sabotage against their open enemies? Even openly?
I'm wondering why this didn't happen sooner.
They could sabotage their own if they really wanted to, or just switch it off.
The obvious answer here is going to be the correct one: it was Russia. Specifically Putin: Russia can be rebuilt on gas to Europe if it ceases the invasion, but Putin specifically won't survive such an event.
Ensuring his potential successor can't "make a deal with the West" is exactly his sort of thinking. With a side benefit of people asking questions like this right now (I mean, this is catastrophic for him long run, but so is the entire war so it's also on brand with his incompetence).
In that current favorable climate for anyone whose political goal it is that Germany does not rely on Russian gas I see no strategic value at all in sabotaging Nord Stream 1 or 2.
You don’t need to blow up Nord Stream 2 if the position of the German government and the largest opposition party is to not move forward with Nord Stream 2 anyway. That would only seem to unnecessarily complicate things (and sabotage can only ever really delay things, better to actually also have the political will align with your own).
Do we really need to smooth "Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24"?
Wording chosen by the Reuters editor leaves unnecessary room for interpretation imo.
You do get how that's worse, right?
https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/27/23374819/meta-russian-inf...
Germany and several other countries have made plans to shut down parts of heavy industry to save gas for heating. This is more than likely to put increasing pressure on governments to give in to Russia's demands. Now they can't, even if they want to, so that pressure is gone.
No. These aren’t disabling attacks.
It could be a warning from the Kremlin; a false flag operation; internecine warfare; interference by the U.S., Gulf or private actors in Norway; or a pipeline built by the same corruption that shipped cardboard armour [1] doing what Russian-involved infrastructure does.
[1] https://mobile.twitter.com/nazk_gov/status/15019605885950156...
This "accident" allows Russia to turn up the pressure on Germany without formally exiting it's contract. It creates plausible deniability for when they pressure Germany to pressure Ukraine to accept a ceasefire.
There are no political alignments that would reverse that given that other options, such as allowing fracking again in Germany, are not even contemplated.
Did you not read the news in the time leading up to the war in Ukraine? US government and media was complaining more about Nord Stream than they were talking about Ukraine.
Indirectly anyone who is interested in causing mistrust among western countries.
My gut tells me this is the most likely answer. It would be a very Russian thing to do.
In that order.
However the current German government is highly atlanticist and was nowhere near reopening Nordstream 2.
So it would make little sense for such an extreme move.
It probably wasn't them.
*Important Note*: I absolutely don't believe this, just an amusing thought.
I encourage you to drop the definite article "the" when referring to Ukraine.
https://theconversation.com/its-ukraine-not-the-ukraine-here...
I've been hoping from the start that someone would sabotage the pipelines to remove the temptation. Guess I got my wish.
Funniest thing is the cause for this Sunday outage - power company spokesman said it was caused by (NOT hot air) balloon crashing into powerlines!
So never underestimate coincidence (Bulgarian lottery) and/or incompetence, though it was most likely Americans, if we are serious.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32994573 pointing to:
https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/earthquakes/quake-info/7054...
edit: never mind, seen it mentioned elsewhere this thread now. (but still...)
>"The Russians talk about these ships in this program doing bathymetric research and deep-ocean research, meaning they do stuff on the sea floor," Bryan Clark, a former US Navy officer and a submarine warfare expert, told Business Insider. "If they are doing research on the sea floor with a military submarine, they are probably also able to interdict or disrupt undersea cabling or other undersea infrastructure, like pipelines."
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-submarine-losharik-un... (2019)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_submarine_Losharik
UPD Thread from a submarine expert:
Germany has struggled to store enough gas storage for winter. They have told the public they have enough, however those estimates assumed a continued flow along the Nordstream 1 pipeline.
I suspect we will see additional oil/gas supply "mystery disruptions" to reduce Europe's willingness to support Ukraine and pressure Ukraine to accept a ceasefire along the existing front (which will defacto annex a big chunk of Ukraine to Russia).
It's going to be a cold and politically difficult winter in Europe.
This isn't true based on what I've read in German and Swedish news. Storage was filling ahead of usual schedule, already having enough to sustain through the winter. What we haven't got, in my understanding, is any buffer room whatsoever. What's your source that knows better than public service news here?
Edit: Here's a Bloomberg article about how you're wrong: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-27/europe-is...
It does make it hard for Germany and Russia to have energy trade, however.
Which makes it easier for the USA to sell its dirty gas in Europe.
"Fun" fact, mostly unrelated: the Baltic sea floor is full of unexploded munitions from WW2, and some (still?) contained chemical weapons.
It makes complete sense to put Europe in deeper hole.
One of the most impressive feats of pipeline engineering in the world and his inability to cooperate with other nations has catalyzed its destruction.
In some poetic fashion, it makes sense. A pipeline like this is symbolic of interstate cooperation. Not surprising it would not survive the breakdown of such cooperation that he instigated. When a state engages in medieval-style aggression, it can't have nice things.
[0] https://www.politico.eu/article/gas-leak-detected-near-nord-...
Maybe just a time sensitive maintenance task that was neglected due to current state of affairs?
Not impossible without further information, but in general the whole point of having multiple pipelines would be to isolate them from this kind of shared failure.
How can you suggest this with a straight face?
I assume the current mode of operation is far from the normal one, which probably brings a much higher likely chance of "edge case" malfunctions, but yeah just speculating here.
We knew that this would be the result of sanctions on western tech and knowledge. I've met and talked a lot with a Russian/Khazak "oil engineer" (asylum seeker, hosted by my mom) and to be honest, his knowledge in thermodynamics was abyssimal and wouldn't qualify for "system dynamics 201" (loose translation, sorry) in my country. I know there was difficulty with the language but even mathematic objects (tensor specifically, he knew what a matrix was) escaped his knowledge. He was probably a very good plumber and technician, able to repair a lot of mechanical issues (he found work in a garage), but the fundamental seemed very shaky in my western view.
I think that if trully skilled workers left, and western monitoring and support are hit by sanctions, any issue like this is very likely to happen on its own and stand to happen more and more as the months pass.
How is the russian explanation simple? I mean, we all knew that Putin will pressure Europe with energy in exchange for a blind eye in Ukraine. But now, how can Putin even play that gambit?