> How you think the debt load might shrink without the US defaulting.
It won't, and it doesn't have to. We pay off a trillion on-time, we borrow another. As long as we make payments as required, no one gives a shit.
> And why will the US not just default...
Because then we stop being able to borrow when we want to, like Argentina.
> What do you think the difference is between borrowing a large amount, returning a small amount and claiming it isn't a default?
We borrow a large amount, and return a small amount lots of times, paying down both some principal and a little interest. Again, just like a mortgage.