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0 pointsmikeweiss3y ago0 comments

Do you really believe these sky high earnings are going to continue?

And what about all the companies that still have billion dollar market caps but have NEGATIVE earnings? (Atlassian, Snowflake, Uber, Crowdstrike, Shopify.... the list goes on)

Folks we are in a tightening cycle in order to fight inflation. It's feels important to remind everyone that economic conditions like this have not happened in decades. This site (hackernews) has pretty much entirely existed in the era of cheap money and low interest rates.

Keep your head in the sand at your own peril.

Companies are tightening their belts and you should too.

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RC_ITR3y ago

>And what about all the companies that still have billion dollar market caps but have NEGATIVE earnings? (Atlassian, Snowflake, Uber, Crowdstrike, Shopify.... the list goes on)

I think they are an extremely small part of the $100tn global stock market that people here love talking about because they work there.

>Folks we are in a tightening cycle in order to fight inflation.

My point was that we are at multiples in-line with 1990, ya know when we had 8% 10Y yields.

Folks, call the end of the world at your own peril.

MuffinFlavored3y ago

> My point was that we are at multiples in-line with 1990, ya know when we had 8% 10Y yields.

Is any part of you worried the S&P is headed 3600 -> 3500 -> 3200 -> 3000 -> 2800 given the current climate? I'm worried that the current P/E ratio (from EPS TTM, past 4 quarters) might be a bit "rosy", and the next 4 quarters of earnings are over-optimistically priced (not enough pain has been factored in/the effects of corporations having to try to grow for 18 months in a 4% interest rate environment hasn't been priced in yet).

If you check https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/additional-mater... and https://www.yardeni.com/pub/yriearningsforecast.pdf, analysts are forecasting 8-9% earnings growth 2022 -> 2023.

That means if we don't hit those numbers, the market will have to reprice itself, no?

metadat3y ago

Spot on.

Additionally, if the entire world stock market is $100tn, the US is sitting pretty, because at $49tn the US stock markets represent HALF of the entire world stock market.

MuffinFlavored3y ago

S&P100 is $28t of that, S&P500 is $32t.

mancerayder3y ago

> Keep your head in the sand at your own peril.

Where do you propose to store wealth if it is all coming down?

nemo44x3y ago

Wealth? You want fixed rate debt right now if it’s all collapsing and we have a decade of unstoppable inflation upon us.

mancerayder3y ago

i-Bonds are limited at 10K, and bond funds seem risky if rates will go up ?

Or are there specific bond funds for this unique time?

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RC_ITR3y ago

>And what about all the companies that still have billion dollar market caps but have NEGATIVE earnings? (Atlassian, Snowflake, Uber, Crowdstrike, Shopify.... the list goes on)

I think they are an extremely small part of the $100tn global stock market that people here love talking about because they work there.

>Folks we are in a tightening cycle in order to fight inflation.

My point was that we are at multiples in-line with 1990, ya know when we had 8% 10Y yields.

Folks, call the end of the world at your own peril.

MuffinFlavored3y ago

> My point was that we are at multiples in-line with 1990, ya know when we had 8% 10Y yields.

If you check https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/additional-mater... and https://www.yardeni.com/pub/yriearningsforecast.pdf, analysts are forecasting 8-9% earnings growth 2022 -> 2023.

That means if we don't hit those numbers, the market will have to reprice itself, no?

metadat3y ago

Spot on.

Additionally, if the entire world stock market is $100tn, the US is sitting pretty, because at $49tn the US stock markets represent HALF of the entire world stock market.

MuffinFlavored3y ago

S&P100 is $28t of that, S&P500 is $32t.

mancerayder3y ago

> Keep your head in the sand at your own peril.

Where do you propose to store wealth if it is all coming down?

nemo44x3y ago

Wealth? You want fixed rate debt right now if it’s all collapsing and we have a decade of unstoppable inflation upon us.

mancerayder3y ago

i-Bonds are limited at 10K, and bond funds seem risky if rates will go up ?

Or are there specific bond funds for this unique time?

3 more replies

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse