The United States has indicated that they would intervene, which means the only way to have a chance at a successful amphibious landing would be to conduct preemptive strikes against US bases in the region. To do so would be a direct declaration of war against the US and NATO, which, at current, China cannot hope to win.

I think China is out of there mind here. They either are A. willing to smash Taiwan to rubble and call it a victory or B. completely overestimate their chance of success.

I think China's real hope is that they can threaten their way to an advantageous position and take Taiwan without firing a bullet, but so far no one is blinking and the west is fed up with autocrats threatening warfare to get their way.

> If China decides to invade Taiwan surely they'll do everything they can to not give the rest of the world a reason to intervene.

That only works if the rest of the world hasn't already decided to intervene.

And sure - NATO isn't "the rest of the world"; but militarily, it might as well be.

“Taking” Taiwan with abrupt military force cannot be decoupled from a war with the entire west all at once. At least US, UK, SK, AUS, and others (unsure about EU involvement).