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0 pointssetr3y ago0 comments

Childcare (specifically thinking of daycare) strikes me as a low-skill job, so labor volume should be fairly high -- excluding I guess things like extra-filtering for background. And as far as I can think of, there's no substantial upfront costs outside of the normal elements -- building, room setup, initial training, etc. It also strikes me as something that can be done with some scalability -- a decent sized group of children can presumably be supported by relatively few adults. At least proven by schools, which can have like a 1:16 - 1:24 teacher:child ratio.

So it seems strange to me that each child would cost ~$15/hr -- the full cost of a single low-skill resource, 1:1 with children; You're not seeing the scalability of groups kick in. Unless there's some overhead per-child I don't understand, it seems clear this isn't simply supply/demand. There are many who want childcare, but there are many more who should be capable of supporting it.

There are also of course difference in popularity/quality which will contribute to a price gradient, but if you're seeing $2k/mo/child as your "basic daycare" costs, there's something up -- there's no inherent reason to the job that I can think of that would stop someone from undercutting that price point.

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lotsofpulp3y ago

Why are you assuming a job that is presumably low skill has a high supply of people willing to sell their time to perform that low skill job?

> Unless there's some overhead per-child I don't understand

I would start with liability costs, it must be massive for a professional daycare facility given how emotionally invested people are with their kids. Next would be redundancy of employees. Babies and toddlers transmit tons of germs, and so the adults around them would get sick too. Plus legally mandated ratios means there has to be adequate coverage for vacations, sick days, emergencies, turn over, etc.

And the population of working age people continues to decline, so I would not associate low skill with high supply of labor. I have never heard anyone tell their child to aspire to become a daycare employee.

I also would not describe managing multiple babies and toddlers properly as low skill, or at least not low effort. It seems to be very strenuous, and I do not think I could do it.

setrOP3y ago

> Why are you assuming a job that is presumably low skill has a high supply of people willing to sell their time to perform that low skill job?

Because there’s a low barrier to entry, people want money, and unless it were particularly horrible or life-threatening, if you’re going to find a high supply of labor anywhere, it’s going to be in a low-skill job?

> I have never heard anyone tell their child to aspire to become a daycare employee.

I have never heard anyone tell their child to aspire to become a McDonald’s employee, or a bank teller, or a pool cleaner, or a gardener, yet I seem to find quite a few of them.

It’s low-skill — you don’t need a 4-year degree and aspirations to get into it. You just need to want money, and have no better options.

> I would start with liability costs, it must be massive for a professional daycare facility given how emotionally invested people are with their kids

But that’d be the same with anything taking responsibility over handling kids — eg summer schools, camps, extra-carriculars, etc. I’m sure they have good margins (parents throw money at anything supporting children), but I don’t think they’re getting barraged by insurance premiums for it.

Legal ratios might help explain it, but that’s part of the “something is going on outside of labor supply/demand”.

lotsofpulp3y ago

> It’s low-skill — you don’t need a 4-year degree and aspirations to get into it. You just need to want money, and have no better options.

So there is your answer. People have better options.

And prices for labor at the bottom have increased for almost all jobs at the bottom of the pay scale. Fast food, landscaper, bus driver, daycare worker, etc.

The obvious cause would be a reduction in supply of labor willing to do the jobs at the bottom of the pay scale.

I would expect the trend to continue as the labor force participation rate continues to decline, partially due to decades of lower and lower birthrates not offset by immigration and automation.

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab...

bombcar3y ago

Low effort certainly not!

Low skill, yes - perhaps not for the life-saving training needed, but I suspect most any able-bodied adult can be trained how to care for an infant or toddler in a week or so (after all, parents get zero training beyond "you need a car seat" when sent home from the hospital).

Whether there are people able and willing at the price listed, I don't know. It seems a job that could be done by teenagers (at least as assistants, supervised) but I suspect they are prohibited.

lotsofpulp3y ago

Teenagers are usually in school at the same time kids are in daycare.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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lotsofpulp3y ago

Why are you assuming a job that is presumably low skill has a high supply of people willing to sell their time to perform that low skill job?

> Unless there's some overhead per-child I don't understand

I also would not describe managing multiple babies and toddlers properly as low skill, or at least not low effort. It seems to be very strenuous, and I do not think I could do it.

setrOP3y ago

> Why are you assuming a job that is presumably low skill has a high supply of people willing to sell their time to perform that low skill job?

> I have never heard anyone tell their child to aspire to become a daycare employee.

I have never heard anyone tell their child to aspire to become a McDonald’s employee, or a bank teller, or a pool cleaner, or a gardener, yet I seem to find quite a few of them.

It’s low-skill — you don’t need a 4-year degree and aspirations to get into it. You just need to want money, and have no better options.

> I would start with liability costs, it must be massive for a professional daycare facility given how emotionally invested people are with their kids

Legal ratios might help explain it, but that’s part of the “something is going on outside of labor supply/demand”.

lotsofpulp3y ago

> It’s low-skill — you don’t need a 4-year degree and aspirations to get into it. You just need to want money, and have no better options.

So there is your answer. People have better options.

And prices for labor at the bottom have increased for almost all jobs at the bottom of the pay scale. Fast food, landscaper, bus driver, daycare worker, etc.

The obvious cause would be a reduction in supply of labor willing to do the jobs at the bottom of the pay scale.

I would expect the trend to continue as the labor force participation rate continues to decline, partially due to decades of lower and lower birthrates not offset by immigration and automation.

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab...

bombcar3y ago

Low effort certainly not!

Whether there are people able and willing at the price listed, I don't know. It seems a job that could be done by teenagers (at least as assistants, supervised) but I suspect they are prohibited.

lotsofpulp3y ago

Teenagers are usually in school at the same time kids are in daycare.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse